Q. David Bowers
1902
Proof-60 to 62 coins certified: 45. Multiplied by 5 = 225 estimated to exist.
Proof-63 coins certified: 35. Multiplied by 2.5 = 88 estimated to exist.
Proof-64 coins certified: 60. Multiplied by 2 = 120 estimated to exist.
Proof-65 or better coins certified: 23. Multiplied by 2 = 46 estimated to exist.
Grand total of Proof coins certified: 163
Total Proofs (60 to 65+) estimated to exist: 479+/-Proof mintage: 777
% of Proof mintage estimated to exist today: 62% of 777
1903
Proof-60 to 62 coins certified: 40. Multiplied by 5 = 200 estimated to exist.
Proof-tid coins certified: 44. Multiplied by 2.5 = 110 estimated to exist.
Proof-64 coins certified: 38. Multiplied by 2 = 76 estimated to exist.
Proof-of or better coins certified: 48. Multiplied by 2 = 96 estimated to exist.
Grand total of Proof coins certified: 170
Total Proofs (60 to 65+) estimated to exist: 482+/-Proof mintage: 755
% of Proof mintage estimated to exist today: 64% of 755
1904
Proof-60 to 62 coins certified: 59. Multiplied by 3 = 177 estimated to exist.
Proof-63 coins certified: 42. Multiplied by 2.5 = 105 estimated to exist.
Proof-64 coins certified: 62. Multiplied by 2 = 124 estimated to exist.
Proof-65 or better coins certified: 42. Multiplied by 2 = 84 estimated to exist.
Grand total of Proof coins certified: 205
Total Proofs (60 to 65+) estimated to exist: 490+/-Proof mintage: 650
% of Proof mintage estimated to exist today: 75% of 650 Note: Proof dollars of the year 1904 were unevenly distributed, and small groups and hoards existed on the market as late as the 1930s. When reading the historical prices given for Proof Morgan dollars listed in various advertisements and catalogues (see extensive quotations later in this section of the book), you will note that 1904 Proofs formed a popular promotion and speculation for a long period of years, beginning shortly after the year of issue, when a Mr. Mercer, who auctioned his specimens through Thomas L. Elder in 1931, began hoarding the date. Because of this, most coins were handled with better care than their contemporaries. Accordingly, I believe that there are fewer Proof 1904 dollars in existence at the Proof-60 to 62 level than is true for other dates of the era. Most survivors are in higher grades, and a greater number are accounted for. To fit in with the survival ratio of the other issues in the series, I have adjusted the multiplier for 1904 to 3, from 5. (If the 5 multiplier had been used, the number of Proof-63 to 62 coins estimated to exist would have been 295, the total number of Proofs estimated to exist in all Proof grades 60 to 65+ would have been 608, and the survival ratio would., have been a too high 94%). Admittedly, this IS adjusting one figure in order to affect the outcome, but in this instance I believe it to be justified for the reason given.
1921 Morgan. "Zerbe Proof"
Proof-60 to 62 coins certified: 13. Multiplied by 5 = 65 estimated to exist.
Proof-63 coins certified: 7. Multiplied by 2.5 = 18 estimated to exist.
Proof-64 coins certified: 7. Multiplied by2 = 14 estimated to exist.
Proof-65 or better coins certified: 5. Multiplied by 2 = 10 estimated to exist.
Grand total of Proof coins certified: 32
Total Proofs (60 to 65+) estimated to exist: 107+/
"Zerbe Proof" mintage: Many hundreds, possibly thousands.
% of Proof mintage estimated to exist today: Unknown.
1921 Morgan. "Chapman Proof"
Proof-60 to 62 coins certified: 11. Multiplied by 5 = 55 estimated to exist.
Proof-63 coins certified: 5. Multiplied by 2.5 = 13 "estimated to exist.
Proof-64 coins certified: O. Multiplied by 2 = 0 estimated to exist.
Proof-65 or better coins certified: O. Multiplied by 2 = 0 estimated to exist.
Grand total of Proof coins certified: 16
Total Proofs (60 to 65+) estimated to exist: 68+/ Proof mintage: Possibly only 15 true mirror Proofs.
% of Proof mintage estimated to exist today: 50%; but not reflected in the certification numbers, which I consider to primarily include Proof coins which are not fully mirrorlike. I believe that of the 15 mirror Proofs thought to have been struck, no more than seven or eight exist today.
Notes: The number of coins certified is too low to permit an accurate or reasonable statistical analysis by the above method. I include it here as it is complementary to the studies done for other dates. I believe that most coins graded as 1921 Proofs are in reality business strikes. I have seen very few 1921 Morgan dollars I would call true mirror Proofs. See detailed commentary under the 1921 Morgan dollar section of this book, where documentation is given for the production of 15 (at least) mirror Proofs.
Commentary: The preceding analysis fits rather well with my own observations of availability of certain issues, except that my multiplier in the Proof-60 to 62 range may be a bit too low; I believe that relatively few Proof Morgan dollars at this level have been certified, and that many of them exist.
Leroy C. Van Allen commented as follows concerning the above figures. (Letter to the author, December 31, 1992.)
Many of the Morgan Proofs have been resubmitted multiple times to grading services because of big price changes with grades. I personally know of a dealer friend who resubmitted a Morgan Proof five times and several other Morgan Proofs multiple times. These resubmittals have particularly distorted [certification service population reports of] the 1921 Proofs because of their low quantities. I think your estimated totals to exist are way high, particularly for 1921 Chapman Proofs.
Quality vs. Price
With regard to coin purchasing I have always recommended that quality come first and price second. As I am a professional numismatist, you might think that I am encouraging people to spend more money than they have to. Quite the contrary. I feel that no great collection has ever been put together by buying so-called "bargains." In buying coins, as in other walks of life, you get what you pay for. Years ago, Lee F. Hewitt, founder Of the Numismatic Scrapbook Magazine, frequently stated that "there is no Santa Claus in numismatics." If a coin is advertised at a price seemingly below market, there is apt to be something wrong with it.
False and misleading advertising in numismatic periodicals was and still is often centered on silver dollars offered at "bargain" prices. Although sliders are not as much of a problem now in the1990s, there are still a lot of phony offers around. Outside of numismatic circles, such retailing giants as American Express and Sears have offered "rare coins" of various denominations for sale, sometimes without even stating in what grade the coins were in-even though just about everyone knows that the value of a coin is dependent upon its grade. The officers and members of the boards of directors of these corporations should hide their heads in shame, or else stop trying to hoax the public. Kenneth E. Bressett, for one, has pinpointed many of these abuses in his monthly column in The Numismatist.
In the Morgan dollar series phony advertising is endemic outside of numismatics, but even in some of the most popular coin collecting periodicals it appears with frequency. If you see a coin which seems to be quite cheap, possibly it is a poorly struck example of an issue which is normally sharply struck, perhaps it is excessively bagmarked, or there may be some other problem.
Quality has never been cheap. If you want the best, you must pay for it. Year in and year out I have consistently paid over "bid" levels, sometimes far over, for hand-picked coins of quality needed for my clients. In John Highfill's Comprehensive U.S. Silver Dollar Encyclopedia, numerous instances are cited of paying many multiples of the "bid" price to acquire a particularly spectacular coin. If you "reach" to buy a quality coin of proven rarity, usually the market will catch up to you and prove you right. In the meantime you will own the coin, while others will still be seeking it-at ever increasing prices.
There are some traps, however. Sometimes a coin which is priced higher than the market may simply be overpriced-or overgraded-or both. Often coin sellers, particularly telemarketers, prey on the unwary by charging them far over market. The grades may be right, the quality may be right, but the price is wrong.
If you pay a strong price for a coin, be sure it is a high-quality specimen of unusual merit. The Federal Trade Commission has been very active in putting out of business numerous firms who sell certified coins, properly graded, but at multiples of market prices-typically for very common issues.