Q. David Bowers
Proof Coins
Proofs form another area of Morgan dollar collecting. In general, Proofs are readily available for the various dates from 1878 through 1904 inclusive. There are varieties among the 1878 and 1879 Proofs, some of which are rarities, and these are delineated in the following text.
The key issue is the 1895, not because it is rare as a Proof, but because it is rare as a date. No confirmed business strikes exist (and, it is possible no business strikes were ever made), so great pressure 880 Proofs originally struck.
The year 1921 exists in Proof finish, but only a few of these have truly mirror Proof surfaces. Most sold as Proofs or even certified as such go under various names, most popularly "Zerbe Proof," and resemble partially prooflike business strikes. However, because of their certification they often bring good prices.
Proof dollars are most attractive when they are of Proof-63 or finer grade. As is the case with Mint State, quality varies widely, and I have seen coins certified as Proof-63 which have been nicer than Proofs certified as Proof-55. This is the exception, not the rule, but there is enough variance that it pays to be a connoisseur when buying. In general, a Morgan dollar in levels such as Proof-60, 61, or even 62 is apt to be considerably hairlined and quite unattractive.
The Number of Proofs Known Today Of the Proofs originally minted, how many exist today? While no one will ever know for sure, I have attempted to provide some meaningful approximations.
The following estimates are based upon mathematical extrapolations of NGC and PCGS population data as of April 1992. (Much of the compilation of data was done by Beth O. Piper. As the preparation of this book took place over a period of years, no effort has been made to correlate all references to population reports, The Coin Dealer Newsletter, etc., to a specific single point in time. The estimates, philosophies, etc., taken from these publications are certainly not time-dated on a month-by-month basis. Nevertheless, current quotations are mainly from periodicals published in 1992.)While I have made some suppositions, and while certification service data do not tell the entire story, still the results are meaningful, in my opinion. The assumption is made that more resubmissions exist among higher grades such as Proof-64 and 65. (When coins are resubmitted to a grading service, they are considered to be different specimens unless the printed grading insert from the previous holder is also sent (in which instance, the old grade information is deleted from future population reports).
The assumption is also made that proportionately fewer coins in the Proof-60 to 63 grade have been submitted, as the values are lower. Hence, the multiplier is higher for the lower grades, to reflect coins not submitted. As time goes on and more coins are submitted to the grading services, future studies will have to reduce the multipliers, for more coins graded does not mean that more coins are known to exist.
In addition to these figures, some impaired Proofs (grades below Proof-60) are known of each date.
Proof-60 to 62: To estimate the number known today, the number of coins certified is multiplied by 3. I am assuming that a significantly higher proportion of lower grade Proof coins has not been certified in the Morgan dollar series. (An exception is made for the year 1904, to which refer.)
Proof-63: To estimate the number known today, the number of coins certified is multiplied by 2.5.
Proof-64: To estimate the number known today, the number of coins certified is multiplied by 2.
Proof-65: To estimate the number known today, the number of coins certified is multiplied by 2.
This formula yields the following results:
1878 8 Tail Feathers
Proof-60 to 62 coins certified: 29. Multiplied by 5 = 145 estimated to exist.
Proof-63 coins certified: 28. Multiplied by 2.5 = 70 estimated to exist.
Proof-64 coins certified: 26. Multiplied by 2 = 52 estimated to exist.
Proof-65 or better coins certified: 22. Multiplied by 2 = 44 estimated to exist.
Grand total of Proof coins certified: 105
Total Proofs (60 to 65+) estimated to exist: 311+/-
Proof mintage: 500- (estimates vary and are highly conjectural)
% of Proof mintage estimated to exist today: 62% of 500
1878 7 Tail Feathers - Reverse of 1878
Proof-60 to 62 coins certified: 10: Multiplied by5 = 50 estimated to exist.
Proof-63 coins certified: 20. Multiplied by 2.5 = 50 estimated to exist.
Proof-64 coins certified: 16. Multiplied by 2 = 32 estimated to exist.
Proof-65 or better coins certified: 11. Multiplied by 2 = 22 estimated to exist.
Grand total of Proof coins certified: 57
Total Proofs (60 to' 65+) estimated to exist: 154+/-
Proof mintage: Estimated 250 to 300 (estimates vary and are highly conjectural)
% of Proof mintage estimated to exist today: 62% of 250.
1878 7 Tail Feathers - Reverse of 1819
Proof-60 to 62 coins certified: 2. Multiplied by 5 = 10 estimated to exist.
Proof-63 coins certified: 4. Multiplied by 2.5 = 10 estimated to exist.
Proof-64 coins certified: O.
Proof-65 or better coins certified: O. Grand total of Proof coins certified: 6
Total Proofs (60 to 65+) estimated to exist: 20+/-
Proof mintage: 50 (estimates vary and are highly conjectural);just 34 sold
% of net Proof mintage estimated to exist today: 59% of 34
1819
Proof-60 to 62 coins certified: 53. Multiplied by 5 = 265 estimated to exist.
Proof-63 coins certified: 58. Multiplied by 2.5 = 145 estimated to exist.
Proof-64 coins certified: 70. Multiplied by2 = 140estimated to exist.
Proof-65 or better coins certified: 51..Multiplied by 2 = 102 estimated to exist.
Grand total of Proof coins certified: 243
Total Proofs (60 to 65+) estimated to exist: 652+/Proof mintage: 1,100
% of Proof mintage estimated to exist today: 59% of 1,100
1880
Proof-60 to 62 coins certified: 61. Multiplied by 5 =; 305 estimated to exist.
Proof-63 coins certified: 64. Multiplied by 2.5 = 160 estimated to exist.
Proof-64 coins certified: 87. Multiplied by2 = 174 estimated to exist.
Proof-65 or better coins certified: 110. Multiplied by 2 = 220 estimated to exist.
Grand total of Proof coins certified: 322
Total Proofs (60 to 65+) estimated to exist: 859+/Proof mintage: 1,355
% of Proof mintage estimated to exist today: 63% Of 1,355