Q. David Bowers
Rarity in MS-65 or Better Grade
In the MS-65 and higher category we are confronted with some really rare issues, especially among the bottom coins on the list. I break the list down into population segments and discuss them below. At the bottom of the chart some coins are sufficiently elusive that years may elapse between purchase opportunities. And if you demand sharp striking with your MS-65, there are certain varieties you may never own at this grade level.
Using the lower of the two figures in each range for each date below, five different Morgan dollar varieties have estimated populations in MS-65 grade of 100,000 or more coins. These issues are very common and are best used one at a time for type sets or as a way to acquaint the public with the attractive aspects of owning Morgan dollars.
Going further down the list, we encounter 12 varieties which have estimated populations of 25,000 or more coins in MS-65 grade. These include the three most plentiful dates in the General Services Administration sales in the 1970s and early 1980s, the 1882-CC, 1883-CC, and 1884-CC. Also within this category are two former great rarities that were released in large quantities in autumn 1962, the 1898-O and 1904-O.
Next on the list are 14 varieties with estimated MS-65 populations of at least 10,000, but less than a minimum of 25,000. All coins to and including this point will be easy to find on the market.
Next come 16 varieties with estimated minimum populations of 2,000 to less than 10,000. On the market these are encountered with some frequency, but are apt to be expensive, often deservedly so. Still, as the population is fairly large, the market is sometimes subject to speculation. Over the years, speculators and promoters have loved common-date Morgan dollars! This does not make the coins less desirable, for selected specimens can be a joy to own. It does, however, raise a warning flag that you should do some market research prior to making a purchase.
The ensuing 14 coins all have estimated minimum populations of 1,000 to less than 2,000. Each of these is in the rare category. In general, finding nice coins will require some diligent hunting, in addition to cherrypicking once you have located a candidate for purchase.
Much the same commentary applies to the next 18 coins, which have estimated minimum populations of at least 250 to less than 1,000 coins.
The next eight coins include some first-class rarities. A word of caution is due concerning the 1887/ 6. Although it is a great rarity in MS-65 grade at the present time, I believe that the vast majority of 1887 Morgan dollars have not been inspected for the overdate feature, and more will turn up. Further, with the current penchant for resubmission of coins to grading services, it seems likely that some of the coins now certified as MS-64 will be recertified as MS-65 (this is a side comment, as this chart deals with total, not just certified, populations). This does not mean that you should not buy one for your collection, but that the idea of putting away a group of them (if such could be found) for investment seems to me to be a bad idea.
The final segment of the list-17 coins in all-includes the rarest Morgan dollars. Indeed, of some varieties perhaps no MS-65 coins, or just one, two, or three, exist. No general comment can possibly cover all of them, except to say that each will represent a major purchase decision, and each should be studied carefully. The data in this book will help, of course. Be somewhat chary of the 1879-CC Large CC over Small CC, for while it is indeed rarer than the 1879-CC Perfect CC, at present there is not as much demand for it as for the Perfect CC issue. Accordingly, an MS-65 Large CC over Small CC usually does not sell for more than a Perfect CC, and often in the past has sold for less. As Morgan dollar buyers become more educated, this may change. The listing of the Large CC over Small CC variety as "Broken CC" in the Guide Book has kept the demand down, for this nomenclature is not particularly appealing to a prospective buyer.
-The five most common MS-65 or better Morgan dollar issues are:
1881-S: 150,000 to 250,000 (the most common Morgan dollar in this grade)
1880-S: 125,000 to 175,000
1885-O: 100,000 to 175,000
1879-S, Third Reverse: 100,000 to 150,000
1882-S: 100,000 to 150,000
-The following 12 coins all have estimated populations of 25,000 or more:
1886: 80,000 to 110,000
1887: 70,000 to 100,000
1884-O: 60,000 to 100,000
1898-O: 45,000 to 80,000
1904-O: 40,000 to 70,000
1885: 40,000 to 65,000
1883-O: 35,000 to 60,000
1883-CC: 35,000 to 45,000
1883: 30,000 to 60,000
1899-O: 30,000 to 60,000
1884-CC: 30,000 to 35,000
1882-CC: 25,000 to 35,000
-These 14 coins all have estimated MS-65 populations of 10,000 or more:
1900-O: 20,000 to 40,000
1921: 20,000 to 40,000
1881-CC: 15,000 to 30,000
1880-CC: 15,000 to 25,000
1888: 15,000 to 25,000
1885-CC: 15,000 to 20,000
1902-O 14,000 to 28,000
1884: 12,500 to 20,000
1896: 12,500 to 20,000
1900: 12,500 to 20,000
1903: 12,500 to 20,000
1878-S: 12,000 to 20,000
1903-O: 10,000 to 20,000
1921-D: 10,000 to 20,000
-These 16 coins each have an estimated MS-65 population of at least 2,000:
1901-O: 8,000 to 16,000
1898: 8,000 to 15,000
1889: 5,000 to 10,000
1897: 5,000 to 10,000
1902: 5,000 to 10,000
1888-0: 4,000 to 8,000
1897-S: 3,500 to 6,000
1882: 3,500 to 5,000
1878-CC: 3,000 to 6,000
1899: 2,500 to 5,000
1882-O: 2,500 to 4,000
1879: 2,500 to 4,000
1881: 2,500 to 4,000
1921-S: 2,000 to 4,000
1880: 2,000 to 3,000
1890-S: 2,000 to 3,000
-Now we enter the rare category with these 14 issues having estimated populations of at least 1,000 to just under 2,000:
1891-S: 1,600 to 2,600
1891-CC: 1,400 to 2,200
1900-S: 1,250 to 2,500
1889-S: 1,200 to 2,000
1881-O: 1,000 to 2,000
1890-CC: 1,000 to 2,000
1890-O: 1,000 to 2,000
1878 8 TF: 1,000 to 2,000
1878 7 TF, Second Reverse, PAF: 1,000 to 2,000
1885-S: 1,000 to 2,000
1899-S: 1,000 to 2,000
1900-O/CC: 1,000 to 2,000
1892-CC: 1,000 to 1,800
1898-S: 1,000 to 1,800
-These 18 issues all have estimated minimum populations of at least 250 but less than 1,000 pieces:
1886-S: 800 to 1,400
1902-S: 700 to 1,400
1887-S: 700 to 1,200
1892: 600 to 1,200
1878 7/0ther TF: 500 to 1,000
1901-S: 500 to 1,000
1878 7 TF, Third Reverse, SAF: 400 to 800
1889-O: 400 to 800
1890: 400 to 800
1893: 400 to 800
1903-S: 400 to 800
1888-S: 400 to 700
1904: 350 to 700
1879-O: 350 to 500
1892-O: 300 to 500
1887-O: 250 to 500
1894-S: 250 to 500
1891-O: 250 to 400
-Each of these eight coins is rare. Each has an estimated minimum population of 100 to 200 coins:
1891: 200 to 400
1904-S: 200 to 400
1894: 150 to 300
1896-S: 150 to 250
1879-CC Perfect CC: 125 to 150
1880-O: 100 to 200
1883-S: 100 to 200
1887/6: 100 to 200
-The 17 greatest rarities:
1889-CC: 80 to 150
1879-S, Second Reverse: 75 to 150
1893-CC: 50 to 100
1895-S: 50 to 100
1897-O: 50 to 100
1892-S: 25 to 50
1879-CC Large CC over Small CC: 20 to 40
1893-S: 12 to 24
1884-S: 12 to 20
1893-O: 10 to 20
1894-O: 10 to 20
1895-O: 8 to 15
1896-O: 4 to 8
1901: 2 to 4
1886-O: 1 to 3
1882-O/S: 0 to 10
1887/6-O: 0 to 10