Q. David Bowers
Sources of Data
I am fortunate in that today, as these words are being written in the early 1990s, I have more sources for information than earlier authors have had. Most of these comments are applicable to Peace dollars as well (and certain comments are repeated in the Peace dollar section of this work).
Source 1: I have the ratings of others to consult, such as John Highfill's commentaries in his 1992 work, The Comprehensive U.S. Silver Dollar Encyclopedia, and Les and Sue Fox's older study, Silver Dollar Fortune Telling, In addition, there are many excellent texts offering numerical or adjectival information concerning the rarity of Peace dollars, including Walter H. Breen's Encyclopedia and Wayne Miller's Morgan and Peace Dollar Textbook. A wealth of excellent information has been consulted (see Bibliography). Many ephemeral articles and comments, many of great value, have been printed in Coin World, COINage Magazine, Coins Magazine, Numismatic News, and The Numismatist in recent decades. Pioneer writers such as Wayne Miller were on their own and did not have the advantages I did.
No discussion of research in the Morgan dollar series would be complete without mentioning the Comprehensive Catalog and Encyclopedia of Morgan and Peace Dollars, a master work by Leroy C. Van Allen and A. George Mallis. The publisher, DLRC Press, asked me what I thought of the book, in connection with soliciting a blurb for publicity, and I truthfully stated that I cannot imagine anyone seriously collecting Morgan (or Peace) dollars without a copy.
Source 2: I have the population reports published by PCGS, NGC, and ANACS, which furnish an excellent guide to the relative rarity of expensive Morgan dollars. I believe that only a tiny. percentage of known Morgan dollars have been certified. Thus, it may come as a surprise for some readers who know, for example, that only. 500 MS-65 .coins of a particular variety have been certified by NGC and PCGS, to see me estimate the population of MS-65 coins at, say 2,000. As Ruth Bauer related in her earlier recollection of selling mint-sealed bags of dollars in the early 1960s, very few people Who bought them then have put them back on the market, Writing in September 1992, David Hall, a founder of PCGS, commented as follows: "There are probably a million of gem quality 1879-S, 1880-S, and 1881-S dollars. I doubt that the grading services have certified more than 5% to 10% of existing examples."
Source 3: I have a great deal of market information (which in some instances equates to relative rarity information) available from The Coin Dealer Newsletter, various privately published investment newsletters, auction prices realized, etc.
Source 4: I have a great fund of historical information about the Treasury releases of Morgan dollars, some of which is given in the present book. Most of this information from the years prior to about 1960 has been used little, if at all, by other researchers. For example, the knowledge that S-mint bags were available in quantity, directly from the San Francisco Mint in the 1940s and 1950s, and that during the same era the Treasury Building in Washington, O.C. was the numismatic equivalent of Ali Baba's cave, will come as a surprise to many. In general, most other authors have concentrated upon the 1962-1964 Treasury release, the G.S.A. sales of Carson City dollars, and the Redfield estate (1976), but not earlier data.
Source 5: I have a good deal of experience to draw from, my own (I became a collector in 1952 and a dealer in 1953, and at an early date spent a lot of time at banks looking through silver dollars) as well as that of Harry J. Forman, Ruth Bauer, John Skubis, Robert Johnson, and others quoted or cited in the book. Today in the early 1990s, those whohandled quantities of coins are much more free with the sharing of information than they were in the 1960s and 1970s, when the market for bulk silver dollars was extremely active, and much knowledge was viewed as being proprietary. As an example, probably not a word of what I have printed about the activities in the Treasury Building in Washington could have been published, or would have been revealed to me, in the 1950s.
I do not hold that my estimates are the be all and end all. Every researcher in numismatics builds upon the foundation laid by others. As sampling and evaluation techniques become increasingly sophisticated, today's numbers will undoubtedly be revised.
Reader comments will certainly be welcomed, especially if suggestions are specific.
Rarity in G-4 to AU-58 Grades
In wide range of grades from G-4 to AU-58 the vast majority of Morgan dollar mintmarks are very inexpensive to acquire. Even most of the rarities on the list-such as 1885-CC and 1903-O-are relatively cheap, because Mint State specimens of these particular issues are far more common than worn coins, and thus keep the price of circulated coins low. Be-cause of the factor of Mint State coins being more common in many instances than worn coins, the following list is more of an educational guide than a market indicator. Use it in combination with data for Uncirculated coins, and historical prices, to evaluate various dates.
In general, if a coin is rare in worn grades but very common in Mint State, it will be inexpensive (1898-O and 1904-O are examples). I fit is common in worn grades and also common in Mint State it will, of course, also be inexpensive (examples include Philadelphia Mint dollars of the 1880s). If a coin is common in worn grades but rare in Mint State, worn coins will be inexpensive and Mint State coins will be high priced (1884-S, 1886-O, and 1901 are examples). However, if a coin is rare in worn grades and also rare in Mint State, it will not only be expensive in all grades but will be a solid rarity (1893- S is the prime example).
The population data given for worn coins are highly subjective. Relatively little has ever appeared in print with regard to estimates of population for circulated Morgan dollars. Population reports from grading services are of little or no help, for only a few varieties have sufficient value to merit their be-ing encapsulated. We go into terra incognita, so to speak. However, all authorities are united in the opinion that the most common of all Morgan dollars is the 1921.
1921: 10,000,000 to 15,000,000
1889: 4,000,000 to 8,000,000
1887: 2,000,000 to 4,000,000
1888: 2,000,000 to 4,000,000
1921-S: 2,000,000 to 4,000,000
1886: 1,500,000 to 3,000,000
1921-D: 1,500,000 to 3,000,000
1896: 1,500,000 to 3,000,000
1884-O 1,500,000 to 2,500,000
1882: 1,350,000 to 2,500,000
1885: 1,300,000 to 2,000,000
1885-O: 1,300,000 to 2,000,000
1879: 1,250,000 to 2,500,000
1890: 1,250,000 to 2,500,000
1883: 1,250,000 to 2,500,000
1880: 1,000,000 to 2,000,000
1881: 1,000,000 to 2,000,000
1884: 1,000,000 to 2,000,000
1890-O: 1,000,000 to 2,000,000
1890-S: 1,000,000 to 2,000,000
1891: 1,000,000 to 2,000,000
1901-O: 1,000,000 to 2,000,000
1883-O: 1,000,000 to 1,600,000
1891-S: 750,000 to 1,500,000
1897-S: 600,000 to 1,200,000
1898: 600,000 to 1,200,000
1880-O: 600,000 to 1,000,000
1881-O: 600,000 to 1,000,000
1878-S: 500,000 to 1,000,000
1888-O: 500,000 to 1,000,000
1882-O: 500,000 to 800,000
1887-O: 450,000 to 800,000
1880-S: 400,000 to 800,000
1898-S: 400,000 to 800,000
1889-O: 300,000 to 600,000
1902-O: 300,000 to 600,000
1896-O: 300,000 to 500,000
1878 7 TF, Second Reverse, P AF: 250,000 to 500,000
1879-O: 250,000 to 500,000
1879-S, Third Reverse: 200,000 to 400,000
1891-O: 200,000 to 400,000
1897-O: 200,000 to 400,000
1901-S: 200,000 to 400,000
1886-O: 175,000 to 350,000
1892-O: 150,000 to 300,000
1897: 150,000 to 300,000
1883-S: 150,000 to 250,000
1878 TF: 125,000 to 250,000