Q. David Bowers
Ultra-High Grades
Condition is important, but one must not follow it slavishly. The concept of value is equally or more important, in my opinion. In the investment market I have seen many abuses in which an investor has paid down a large sum of money for a coin in a technically high grade such as MS-65 or even MS-66, 7, or 9, and has become the owner of a coin which might be very rare in its grade category, but for which there is very little collector demand. Moreover, as time passes it is often the case that more and more high-grade coins become certified, and a piece that was once the only MS-68 extant may become one of three, four, or more. This point cannot be overemphasized. Earlier, I quoted David Hall's September 1992 statement: "The coins which are the best examples of the level of absurdity reached by the marketplace's obsession with quality are the early S-Mint Morgan dollars." The founder of PCGS continued by stating that he recommended that anyone owning commoner varieties of Morgan dollars and coins in very high certified grades such as MS-68 and MS-69 sell them immediately. He advised that with only 5% to 10% of the gem Morgan dollars in existence presently certified, the population of certified high-grade pieces is bound to go up and the prices down:
Theoretically, the PGCS population could increase by 1,000% to 2,000%. The population will continue to increase, and the prices will probably continue to come down. The prices might even go down in a bull market. So, I suggest that you sell any MS-68, MS-69, Proof-68, and Proof-69 examples of common coins you are currently holding.
Setting a Goal for Grades
If you are a person of average means, my suggestion would be to opt to build a set in at least MS-63 grade for at least the 50 most common in the series. Perhaps for the 25 most common you might want MS-64 or even MS-65.
The bottom half or rarest part of the list can be done on an individual basis, MS-60 to MS-63 will suffice for many of these, but when you get down to the tough pieces, you may wish to consider coins at the AU level or even the EF level. Such tough issues include 1889-CC, 1892-S, 1893-S, and the Proof-only 1895. Refer to my earlier suggestions for making a want list.
A Collection Within a Collection
There is also the possibility of forming a collection within a collection. As an example, a set of Carson City dollars can be formed to include the 1878-CC, 1879-CC, 1880-CC, 1880-CC 2nd Reverse, 1881-CC, 1882-CC, 1883-CC, 1884-CC, 1885-CC, 1889-CC, 1890-CC, 1891-CC, 1892-CC, 1893-CC. This is a complete run. As an extra item you can always add the 1900-O/CC overmintmark, struck at New Orleans, but using dies originally prepared for Carson City. This forms a challenging enterprise. There are some rare pieces here, notably the 1879-CC and particularly the 1889-CC.
A "short set" of Carson City dollars from 1878-CC through 1885-CC is a bit easier to accomplish but still includes the scarce 1879-CC.
Sets as well as short sets or runs of New Orleans, San Francisco, or Philadelphia Mint dollars can be built as well. For example, it is not difficult to assemble a set of Philadelphia Morgan dollars dated in the 1880s; there are no scarce or rare issues to contend with.
A popular set for casual purposes is one showing each mint at which Morgan dollars were struck:
Philadelphia, Carson City, Denver (in 1921 only), New Orleans, and San Francisco-five coins, each of which is readily available. This makes a nice display.
Anyone of the preceding sets can serve as a jumping-off point for a larger, more comprehensive collection of Morgan dollars.
Cherrypicking for Quality
If you are not familiar with the grading of Morgan dollars and want to make a good beginning, my recommendation is to use coins certified by the three leading grading services, PCGS, NGC, and ANACS. As there are plenty of ugly coins in holders slabbed by these firms, so never buy coins sight unseen. Instead, use the certification as a beginning step for other characteristics. If you examine a coin, determine that you like the grade and appearance.
In an interesting exercise, Ray Merena of our or-ganization recently looked at three coins all from the same leading grading service. He picked a low end or rather scruffy MS-65, a right-on-target MS-64, and a very special or high-end MS-63. He did this with due deliberation just to illustrate a point. Placing tape over the grades of each of the three, he gave them to several professional numismatists at a major convention and asked them rank them in order-to pick out which one was MS-63, which one was MS-64, and which one was MS-65. You guessed it: For most of the graders participating in the test, the cer-tified MS-63 was picked as the MS-65, the MS-64 was left where it was to begin with, and the MS-65 was called an MS-63.
While many certified coins are right on target of-ten I have found that when we buy certain varieties for our stock we have to look through a dozen or more of certain issues in order to find one that is just right. This is particularly evident for issues which have poor lustre or which commonly occur with bagmarks. For example, I have often seen 1895-S dollars, an issue which is usually heavily bagmarked, certified as MS-63-but which I have had to grade as MS-60 or MS-61. I also have a problem with 1921, 1921-D, and 1921-S dollars certified in higher grades. See for yourself. Examine one of these coins certified MS-64 or MS-65 and compare it with an 1881-S dollar certified in the same grade. Chances are good that the 1921 will look like a dog, and the 1881-S will be a sparkling gem.
This book addresses the situation of quality, and the text will tell you which issues (such as 1881-S) usually are easy to find with aesthetically appealing surfaces, and which ones are not (the aforementioned 1921 Morgan varieties).
In any event, before writing a check, be sure a given coin is pleasing to you. Don't take anyone else's word for it. No Morgan dollar is so rare that you have to accept an ugly specimen. Reject any and all such things.
The Surfaces of Coins
From this point I proceed to a discussion of surface coloration. This is an important adjunct to the grade of any coin, although it does not necessarily affect the numerical or technical grade number.
In my opinion, you should acquire only brilliant or attractively lightly toned coins. Reject spotted, stained, gray, brown, black, etc., Morgan dollars, many of which exist in certified holders. Often these coins are difficult to grade to begin with, and on occasion when removed from slabs and dipped, what was certified as an MS-65 coin has proved in reality to be an MS-63 or even less. In my opinion, aesthetic considerations are an important aspect of coin purchasing, so don't compromise here. Again, if it is not attractive, don't buy it.
At this point I amasking you to consider a coin which so far is in what you believe to be the grade stated-say MS-63-and with a nice surface, say fully brilliant or with attractive light toning.