Q. David Bowers
Rarity in MS-64 Grade
In the MS-64 category we are confronted with some very elusive issues, especially among the, bottom coins on the list. Some are sufficiently hard to find that a matter of months or years may elapse between purchase opportunities. I have divided the list into segments by estimated minimum population (using the lower of the two figures given for each year) and herewith give some comments;
At the top of the list are 17 varieties of which at least 100,000 coins are believed to exist in MS-64 grade. Only a small percentage of these have been certified, but still there will be no problem acquiring specimens of each, and at inexpensive prices. If you contemplate building a collection of Morgan dollars with this grade level as a start, these 17 coins will be a good way to start.
Then come 18 coins on the list, with a minimum population of at least 25,000, but less than 100,000. These, too, are readily available on the market, and at inexpensive prices.
Next will be found 14 coins with estimated minimum populations in the 10,000 to 20,000 range. Like the preceding, these are quite inexpensive on today's market and seem to me to offer especially good values for the prices paid.
Following are 26 coins with estimated minimum populations from 2,500 to 7,500. These seem to me to be even better values than the preceding. To this point, all Morgan dollars are eminently affordable in this relatively high grade.
Next come 11 coins which are nearly all in the rare category, and most of which are fairly costly. Such issues as (in date order) 1879-CC, 1893-CC, 1896-S, and 1904-S are key issues in any Mint State category. There is something comforting, an extra value, when a coin is basically rare as a date or mintmark, in addition to being rare in a particular grade. Thus, 1879-CC, 1893-CC, 1895-S, 1896-S, and 1904-S are very solid, established coins. Of course, prices have and will continue to fluctuate in concert with general market movements.
The final coins on the list, 17 in number, include a number of well-known rarities, varieties which are key issues in any Mint State level; the comfort factor again, as noted in the preceding paragraph. Most famous in this category is the 1893-S, a coin which is sufficiently rare in MS-64 grade that even a specialist in silver dollars may wait years before stocking an example. 1901 is about the same rarity level, or even rarer. I am not as keen on the 1901 in MS-64, because several hundred Proofs exist in Proof-64 or finer condition. While a Proof is nota Mint State coin, there is no doubt that the availability of such Proofs could potentially take the edge off the demand for Mint State pieces, although to date they do not seem to have done so. 1889-CC is, of course, a prime rarity, despite the rumor that someday a few bags may be broken up and distributed. On the other hand, perhaps most if not all have already been dispersed, and quietly. The jury is still out on the rarity of 1882-O/S and 1887/6-O in MS-64, as without doubt there are a number of regular 1882-O and 1887-O coins that have not been examined for overmintmark or overdate features respectively. The 1879-CC Large CC over Small CC is quite rare in MS-64, but does not necessarily sell for-more than (or even as much as) the more plentiful Perfect CC variety. 1895-O is a dollar that has always been rare. Few such coins exist. 1895-S becomes very rare in higher grade levels such as MS-64 and MS-65 or better. Coins in this area of the list require, indeed demand, careful study before purchase, as a substantial financial commitment is involved.
The following 17 varieties all have estimated minimum populations of 100,000 or more coins in MS-65 grade:
1881-S: 400,000 to 600,000 (tied with the following most
common Morgan dollar in MS-64 grade)
1885-O: 400,000 to 600,000 (tied with the preceding)
1884-O: 350,000 to 500,000
1887: 350,000 to 500,000
1886: 275,000 to 400,000
1904-O: 250,000 to 500,000
1921: 200,000 to 400,000
1883-O: 200,000 to 350,000
1880-S: 200,000 to 300,000
1885: 160,000 to 250,000
1879-S, Third Reverse: 150,000 to 250,000
1899-O: 150,000 to 250,000
1882-S:120,000 to 180,000
1883-CC: 110,000 to 125,000
1884-CC: 110,000 to 120,000
1900-O: 100,000 to 200,000
1902-O: 100,000 to 200,000
These 18 coins have estimated minimum MS-64 populations of at least 25,000 but fewer than 100,000:
1882-CC: 75,000 to 100,000
1883: 60,000 to 120,000
1888: 60,000 to 120,000
1896: 50,000 to 100,000
1921-D: 50,000 to 100,000
1898-O: 45,000 to 80,000
1878-S: 40,000 to 80,000
1881-CC: 40,000 to 55,000
1889: 35,000 to 70,000
1884: 30,000 to 60,000
1898: 30,000 to 60,000
1900: 30,000 to 60,000
1901-O: 30,000 to 60,000
1921-S: 30,000 to 60,000
1880-CC: 30,000 to 50,000
1882: 30,000 to 50,000
1897: 25,000 to 50,000
1880: 25,000 to 40,000
1885-CC: 25,000 to 35,000
-The following 14 coins have estimated minimum populations between 10,000 and 20,000 coins:
1903-O: 20,000 to 40,000
1888-O: 20,000 to 35,000
1879: 20,000 to 30,000
1881: 20,000 to 30,000
1882-O: 20,000 to 30,000
1903: 18,000 to 35,000
1878-7 TF, Second Reverse, PAF: 15,000 to 30,000
1902: 15,000 to 30,000
1881-O: 15,000 to 25,000
1897-S: 14,000 to 20,000
1890: 12,000 to 20,000
1878-CC: 10,000 to 20,000
1890-O: 10,000 to 18,000
1890-S: 10,000 to 18,000
-These 26 coins have estimated minimum populations in the 2,500 to 7,500 range:
1878 7/0ther TF: 7,500 to 15,000
1899: 7,000 to 14,000
1878 7 TF, Third Reverse, SAF: 6,000 to 12,000
1889-S: 6,000 to 10,000
1891-CC: 6,000 to 10,000
1891-S: 6,000 to 10,000
1878-S TF: 5,000 to 10,000
1900-O/CC: 5,000 to 10,000
1900-S: 5,000 to 10,000
1898-S: 4,500 to 7,000
1879-O: 4,000 to 8,000
1885-S: 4,000 to 8,000
1891: 4,000 to 8,000
1893: 4,000 to 8,000
1902-S: 4,000 to 8,000
1904: 4,000 to 8,000
1887-S: 4,000 to 7,000
1886-S: 3,500 to 6,000
1899-S: 3,500 to 6,000
1887-O: 3,000 to 6,000
1892-O: 3,000 to 6,000
1901-S: 3,000 to 6,000
1888-S: 3,000 to 5,000
1890-CC: 3,000 to 5,000
1892-CC: 3,000 to 5,000
1889-O: 2,500 to 5,000
-The following 11 coins have estimated minimum populations in the 500 to 2,000 range:
1891-O: 2,000 to 4,000
1892: 2,000 to 4,000
1880-O: 1,500 to 3,000
1904-S: 1,500 to 3,000
1894-S: 1,500 to 2,500
1883-S: 1,200 to 2,000
1893-CC: 1,000 to 2,000
1903-S: 1,000 to 2,000
1879-CC Perfect CC: 900 to 1,300
1896-S: 750 to 1,500
1894: 500 to 1,000
-The following 17 coins include the rarest in the series:
1887/6: 400 to 800
1889-CC: 400 to 800
1895-S: 400 to 800
1879-CC Large CC over Small CC: 300 to 500
1879-S, Second Reverse: 300 to 500
1894-O: 250 to 500
1893-O: 200 to 300
1886-O: 125 to 250
1882-O/S: 100 to 200
1884-S: 80 to 150
1897-O: 80 to 150
1896-O: 75 to 150
1887/6-O: 60 120
1895-O 30 to 50
1892-S: 10 to 20
1893-S: 10 to 15