Q. David Bowers
"Because they were common, they were once cheap. Because they were cheap, they attracted coin collectors. Because they attracted coin collectors, they were listed in these books, they were bought by more collectors. Because they were ought by more collectors, they became hard to find Because they became hard to find, they went up in price.
"So, what do we have? We have the most common patterns bringing prices far higher than other patterns which are many times rarer!
"The explosive potential of patterns becomes obvious when we realize how few patterns are struck. A pattern rated Rarity-6 means that between 13 and 30 pieces are estimated to exist! Some Rarity-7 patterns, of which between four and 12 pieces exist, sell for a low three-figure price. In fact, Bowers points out that Judd-606, an 1868 pattern cent with liberty head, a Rarity-7 item, sells for only $70! After discussing condition and recent market history, Bowers makes some recommendations concerning patterns as an investment and ends up with some 'do's and don'ts.' Perhaps the timing of this release had some effect on the activity in the DiBello sale."
In August 1970 Abe Kosoff, a trustee for the evolving American Numismatic Authentication 'rust, told Coin World readers that a great flood of alleged forgeries was invading the marketplace. An article noted:
"Kosoff refuses to have the coins sent in for authentication, because when owners are told the coins are fake, they frequently insist that the returned items were not the same ones submitted. Most of the time they are acting in good faith. They really believe the coins are not the ones they own,' Kosoff stated. 'In order to avoid any controversy I simply refuse to look at the coins unless re owner shows them to me in person. Of course, if some office existed under the jurisdiction of the ANA, the coins could be sent there. That's what are American Numismatic Authentication Trust ; trying to accomplish,' he said."
The text observed that within a 10-day period lobe Kosoff was offered many alleged forgeries, including three 1851 Baldwin & Co. $10 pieces, at least 10 1776 New Hampshire cents, and quite few Parsons $20 ingots (of which the only known genuine specimen is in the Smithsonian Institution).
Kosoff noted that the Professional Numismatists Guild was taking matters into its own hands and was establishing a Certification Program whereby coins could be registered to give them permanent identification.
By August 1970, over $50,000 had been raised for the American Numismatic Authentication T rust, largely due to contributions solicited from members of the PNG. Thus, the main fund raisers, Abe Kosoff, John Pittman, and Virgil Hancock, claimed that the "first plateau" had been reached.
In the January 1971 installment of the "Crystal Ball" in the Numismatic Scrapbook Magazine, Abe Kosoff warned against one of his adversaries, the speculator
The Crystal Ball is cloudy. Analysis of 1970's activities reveals rarities in the five-figure class have been in demand at good price levels. Inexpensive circulated coins are selling. Foreign and ancient coins have done well as has the field of United States paper money. Medals and tokens are taking up a good percentage of the coin-buying dollar.
"Weakness seems to have been in choice United States coins-Proofs are weak, Uncirculated coins have not been appealing. Scarce pieces are available at bargain prices. Wise buyers would do well to study the offerings, as sensational buys are available ...
"The sales spotlight will be shining on rarities in general, also paper money, foreign and ancient coins ... The collector is really the best invest or the so-called investor is really a speculator. Protect us from him!"
About the same time, the slogan "Sound Advice is Worth the Price" appeared regularly in Abe Kosoff's display advertisements.
In October 1971, Abe Kosoff published the results of a survey he had taken. He analyzed mail received from customers and readers of his Coin World column and came up with the finding that the most popular items of that time, not in any particular order, were ancient coins, foreign gold, United States paper money, silver dollars, United States patterns, commemoratives, and the coins of Israel, Italy, Germany, and Japan.
Also popular, but further down on the list, were U.S. colonial coins, early type coins, gold dollars, $3 pieces, and certain types of the quarter eagle and half eagle denominations.
These were not Abe Kosoff's personal favorites, for he stated concerning his own desires: "I know I am prejudiced, but I cannot see how any collector, once exposed to the series of United States patterns, can resist owning some. For me, patterns are among the most fascinating of all numismatic items. I suppose I might also include territorial gold coins, commemoratives, and colonial pieces-with a bow also to tokens and medals and that for me would wrap up the United States numismatic field to a great extent."
The collection of Julian S. Marks, together with other numismatic properties, was sold by-mail bid sale on October 26; 1971. The 1,677 lots commenced with an 1813 8-escudo piece of Argentina and concluded with a 1926-S American double eagle. In between were many different United States coins and 'paper money issues as well as world coins and other items.
In June 1972 the coin market was moving upward. Many people had been waiting on the sidelines since 1965, Abe Kosoff reported, and in 1972 they were coming into the market to buy and sell. Although the intensity of coin buying had increased in recent months, as evidenced by the first 200 lots of an auction sale bringing close to double catalogue value, still there were enough sellers on the sideline to provide sufficient material that any increases were expected to be "healthy and steady- I certainly hope so for it is the radical jump in prices which creates the dangerous situation in which prices eventually fall harder and more quickly than a normal recession would suggest," Abe Kosoff noted.
"My advice is to avoid panic buying; there is no need for it. There will be a supply of coins entering the market. If one is selective and prudent, one can acquire desirable coins at prices which will eventually prove to be an excellent investment in time and money. Even Indian Head cents and Lincoln cents are starting to move, and these are perhaps the greatest buys in the world! These have been sorely neglected for at least the last seven years. They are long overdue for a comeback. Nickel coins, too, are beginning to sell. So, the evidence is in. The only thing not yet catching on is the sale of rolls and Proof sets. Perhaps I should not say the 'sale' of these items. They seem to be selling but at give-away prices. What to predict about late Proof sets is a puzzle, but I do not hesitate to recommend those sets from 1936 through 1951. Many of them are grossly undervalued and qualify for higher value levels."