Q. David Bowers
Estimating the Number of Proofs Known
The following estimates are based upon mathematical extrapolations of NGC and PCGS population data as of April 1992. (Much of the compilation of data was done by Beth O. Piper.) While I have made some suppositions, and while certification service data do not tell the entire story, still the results are meaningful, in my opinion. The assumption is made that more resubmissions exist among higher grades such as Proof-64 and 65. The assumption is also made that proportionately fewer coins in the Proof-60 to 63 grade have been submitted, as the values are lower. Hence, the multiplier is higher for the lower grades, to reflect coins not submitted. As time goes on and more coins are submitted to the grading services, future studies will have to reduce the multipliers, for more coins graded does not mean that more coins are known to exist.
In addition to these figures, some impaired Proofs (grades below Proof-60) are known of each date.
Proof-60 to 62: To estimate the number known today, the number of coins certified is multiplied by 5. I am assuming that a significantly higher proportion of lower grade Proof coins has not been certified in the Liberty Seated dollar series.
Proof-63: To estimate the number known today, the number of coins certified is multiplied by 2.5.
Proof-64: To estimate the number known today, the number of coins certified is multiplied by 2.
Proof-65: To estimate the number known today, the number of coins certified is multiplied by 2.
This formula yields the following results:
1858
Proof-60 to 62 coins certified: 19. Multiplied by 5 = 95 estimated to exist.
Proof-63 coins certified: 15. Multiplied by 2.5 = 37 estimated to exist.
Proof-64 coins certified: 5. Multiplied by 2 = 10 estimated to exist.
Proof-65 or better coins certified: 2. Multiplied by 2 = 4 estimated to exist.
Grand total of Proof coins certified: 41
Total Proofs (60 to 65+) estimated to exist: 146 Proof mintage: Estimated 265+/-
% of Proof mintage estimated to exist today: 55% of 265+/- (per the paragraph below).
Using estimated survival percentages of other contemporary dates such as 1859, 1860, and 1861, of 56%, 52%, and 57%, I arrive at an average of 55%. Applying this to an estimated 146 1858 Proofs known to exist today, if this is 55% of the original mintage, the original mintage of the 1858 Proof dollar can be estimated at 265+/- coins. Of course, this is just one guess.
1859
Proof-60 to 62 coins certified: 29. Multiplied by 5 = 145 estimated to exist.
Proof-63 coins certified: 19. Multiplied by 2.5 = 47 estimated to exist.
Proof-64 coins certified: 18. Multiplied by 2 = 36 estimated to exist.
Proof-65 or better coins certified: 12. Multiplied by 2 = 24 estimated to exist.
Grand total of Proof coins certified: 78
Total Proofs (60 to 65+) estimated to exist: 252
Proof distribution: Estimated 450 from a mintage of 800 % of Proof distribution estimated to exist today: 56% of 450
1860
Proof-60 to 62 coins certified: 32. Multiplied by 5 = 160 estimated to exist.
Proof-63 coins certified: 28. Multiplied by 2.5 = 70 estimated to exist.
Proof-64 coins certified: 16. Multiplied by 2 = 32 estimated to exist.
Proof-65 or better coins certified: 5. Multiplied by 2 = 10 estimated to exist.
Grand total of Proof coins certified: 81
Total Proofs (60 to 65+) estimated to exist: 272 Proof distribution: 527 from a mintage of 1,330
% of Proof distribution estimated to exist today: 52% of 527
1861
Proof-60 to 62 coins certified: 27. Multiplied by 5 = 135 estimated to exist.
Proof-63 coins certified: 16. Multiplied by 2.5 = 40 estimated to exist.
Proof-64 coins certified: 9. Multiplied by, 2 = 18 estimated to exist.
Proof-65 or better coins certified: 4. Multiplied by 2 = 8 estimated to exist.
Grand total of Proof coins certified: 56
Total Proofs (60 to 65+) estimated to exist: 201
Proof distribution: Estimated 350 from a mintage of 1,000 % of Proof distribution estimated to exist today: 57% of 350
1862
Proof-60 to 62 coins certified: 36. Multiplied by 5 = 180 estimated to exist.
Proof-63 coins certified: 28. Multiplied by 2.5 = 70 estimated to exist.
Proof-64 coins certified: 21. Multiplied by 2 = 42 estimated to exist.
Proof-65 or better coins certified: 8. Multiplied by 2 = 16 estimated to exist.
Grand total of Proof coins certified: 93
Total Proofs (60 to 65+) estimated to exist: 308 Proof mintage: 550
% of Proof mintage estimated to exist today: 56% of 550
1863
Proof-60 to 62 coins certified: 42. Multiplied by 5 = 210 estimated to exist.
Proof-63 coins certified: 32. Multiplied by 2.5 = 80 estimated to exist.
Proof-64 coins certified: 28. Multiplied by 2 = 56 estimated to exist.
Proof-65 or better coins certified: 5. Multiplied by 2 = 10 estimated to exist.
Grand total of Proof coins certified: 107
Total Proofs (60 to 65+) estimated to exist: 356 Proof mintage: 460
% of Proof mintage estimated to exist today: 77% of 460