Q. David Bowers
Numismatic findings come to light, and thoughts change. Weimar W. White stated the following; (Letters to the author, March 14 and May 3, 1992. Weimar W. White was very helpful in the preparation of the present book and corresponded with me on a regular basis.) Now with more data available to analyze-ie., population reports, Liberty Seated Collectors Club surveys of membership holdings, etc.-I feel that the following estimated breakdown of Liberty Seated dollars is more in line with my present thinking: 3,600 Proofs known; 2,600 Uncirculated specimens known; 32,000 circulated specimens known. This gives a total population of 38,200.
My method of estimating the dollars is as follows: About 36% of the Proofs released to collectors are still around; this gives 3,600 extant. The ratio of Proofs to Uncirculated coins is one Proof for every 0.71 Uncirculated coin (per PCGS Population Report data). This gives 0.71 x 3,600 = 2,600 Uncirculated coins. The number of circulated coins around can be calculated as being 12.1 circulated coins for every one Uncirculated piece. This gives about 32,000 circulated pieces extant. The 1:12.1 ratio came from the LSCC survey of their holdings. The club members concentrate on circulated and Uncirculated coins but not Proof coins, as a general statement. I feel that these figures are close to the actual truth, or within 20% of the number in existence.
Further from Weimar W. White: (Letter to the author, March 24, 1992.)
It is apparent from your manuscript that you weigh heavily on other dealer perceptions and recollections. This makes the book sort of folksy and gives all of us a chance to express our opinions. My opinions are mostly mathematical in nature and can be debated. Perceptions and recollections have to stand alone since they cannot be proved or disproved.
In my opinion, the two methods are not equal and should not carry equal weight .... I have given you [and published in The Gobrecht Journal my methods for estimating coin populations .... I believe that they carry more weight than hearsay information and perceptions ...
Harry Salyards, M.D., commented as follows re the White estimates: (Letter to the author, March 24, 1992.)
36% of Proofs extant is WAY too low-barely more than half the survival rate you estimate for 1836 Gobrechts, for example, more than half of which were definitely subject to the attrition of circulation!
The ratio of Proofs to Uncirculated examples submitted to any grading service is useless, since we have no way of knowing if more Proofs, or more Uncirculated coins, are cracked out and resubmitted; nor is there any way of knowing if one "style" is preferentially submitted over the other-more Proofs to certify that status, or more Uncirculated as the rarer, high-ticket items for example.
The solitary Liberty Seated Collectors Club survey cited is the most preliminary sort of data-drawing provocative conclusions from it is akin, in my estimation, to William H. Sheldon's 1958 assertion that S-264 "may not be as rare as S-262." Again it can be argued either way-as collectors, club members provide the main market for sets of circulated coins; as specialists, they're fussier about what they collect.
Finally, of the 6,499,621 total Liberty Seated dollars struck, White's total of 38,200 is only 0.5%-a figure which can't be reconciled with anyone else's survival estimate for any related series, including Breen's 4% survival rate for dollars of 1794-1803 (cf. Silver Coinages of the Philadelphia Mint, p. 5). Bullion prices being what they were during the era of their minting, they may well have been subject to unusual forces of destruction-but even so, a 2% overall survival rate would amount to 129,992 coins.
In a letter, Dale R. Phelan, a student of numismatics, history, and economics, expressed the opinion that 100,000 to 130,000 Liberty Seated dollars survive in various grades. (Letter to the author, April 28, 1992) "From long experience [since 1953] I have found that there are many more coins hidden away, only to come out of the woodwork in the future." He went on to say that it is important to remember that many such coins were known to exist before quantities came out during the Treasury releases of the early 1960s.
What is the correct figure for surviving Liberty Seated dollars? This will never be known, but I believe it to be at least in the range of 40,000 to 80,000 coins, with perhaps half this total coming from the 1962-4 Treasury release (see Harry Forman interview below). When that distribution occurred, there were already enough Liberty Seated dollars on the market that prices were not affected for more than a few years. I recall well that the impact of the new releases was minimal on the market for such coins (except for Mint State 1859-O and 1860-O dollars), a situation dramatically different from that in the Morgan and Peace series.