Q. David Bowers
However, the consensus of Liberty Seated dollar specialists who saw the manuscript for the 'present work is that the 1859-O and 1860-O may be about in line With the Breen estimates, or rarer (none suggested more were released), out that only a few hundred or so were released of 1871 and 1872. I have been unable to find any substantiation of full bags of 1871 or 1872 dollars,
Melting: I have every reason to believe that nearly all of the business strike Liberty Seated dollars minted from 1840 through the early 1870s were distributed. As noted earlier, vast quantities of these were shipped to the Orient and melted there. The Treasury did keep back a few bags of 1,000 coins, as evidenced by the 1859-O and 1860-O dollars which came to light in the early 1960s. Exactly how the Treasury came to hold these bags is not known, for at the time of coinage Liberty Seated dollars were specifically paid out to depositors of silver bullion. So far as is known, the government did not mint such coins for its own account. Probably, the 1859-O and 1860-O dollars were paid out to depositors at the time, and then were returned to' the Treasury later.
Possibly, other bags were also kept but were melted under the Pittman Act of 1918 (of which much will be said in the section under Morgan silver dollars). With regard to dollars of the last date of issue, 1873, many of this date are believed to have been destroyed in the melts that took place that year. Included were Philadelphia Mint dollars, much of the mintage of 1873-CC (accounting for its rarity today in comparison to the lower mintage 1871-CC) and, apparently, all of the 700 1873-S coins. Over 1,000 Proofs of recent years were also destroyed.
Summary of reasons: As can be seen, various destructive factors acted upon Liberty Seated dollars during their coinage period 1840-1873, with the result that in many instances the number of surviving Mint State coins today has no direct relationship to the quantity minted.
Determining the population: How, then can the population of extant Mint State Liberty Seated dollars be determined? I have used several sources or elements, combining them and adding a measure of my own opinion based upon my numismatic experience. This methodology is similar to that used earlier to estimate the population of circulated Liberty Seated dollars:
Grading services: Prior to the inception of the Professional Coin Grading Service (1986) and the Numismatic Guaranty Corporation of America (1987) grading tended to be highly erratic.
Although PCGS and NGC are not necessarily paragons of consistency, in my view they are much more consistent than grading by others in the past. For example, the American Numismatic Association Board of Governors announced in January 1986 that the American Numismatic Association Grading Service (known as ANACS)! had changed its interpretations over a period of time, and that certain coins graded earlier as MS-65 were now in some instances MS-60 to MS-63.
I have used both The PCGS Population Report and the NGC Census Report in the present study. However, as it is a popular practice to resubmit coins in hope of securing a higher grade, and as there are many coins that have been resubmitted multiple times, these reports show many coins to be more plentiful than they actually are.
If, to create a hypothetical example, someone owning a Mint State 1859-S dollar were to submit it to one or both grading services and have it graded MS-60 (the first time), MS-60 (again, on the second time), MS-60 (once again), MS-61 (aha! an improvement!), and, finally, MS-61 (by which time the submitter tires of the effort and expense and calls it quits, selling it as MS-61), this would appear in the records as five coins, whereas only one specimen was truly represented. Bruce Amspacher, an owner of PCGS, reported that a client sent in the same 1854 Mint State dollar six times, but did not return the paper inserts; thus, the PCGS Population Report indicates six different high-grade coins, whereas only one specimen was involved.
Balancing this is my belief that among coins of relatively large populations, such reports give a good relative idea of the rarity of such pieces.
It must be remembered that only a small proportion of extant coins has been certified. This is especially important to any investors who are reading these words. If, for example, PCGS has certified just one specimen of a given dollar variety in MS-65, this means that at least one specimen exists, but a dozen others could exist but not be seen by PCGS.
By way of analogy in another series, let me point out that 2,100 1939-S Arkansas commemorative half dollars were distributed, and 95% or more of these were sold at a premium to collectors and investors. In other words, no pieces were spent or sold to the general public. As of autumn 1991 (October 1991 for NGC; December 1991 for PCGS), the two leading grading services had certified 300 (PCGS) and 96 (NGC) for a total certification of 396, equal to 19% of the original distribution, and this figure may include resubmissions of the same coins.
It is probably correct to assume that most 1939-S Arkansas half dollars survive, and that many in the hands of dealers and investors have been certified (for such people tend to certify higher value coins, of which this is one). Still, even if we were to assume that all 396 coins are different, and that no resubmissions of the same coins had occurred, the answer is that for every one coin that has been certified, four have not been.
Because of this, if a certified coin report states that just five or 10 Mint State specimens exist of this silver dollar or that one, there is more than meets the eye to such figures. Admittedly, commemoratives have different market characteristics than do Liberty Seated dollars, but certain principles of certification are the same.
In summary, figures in population reports often include duplication, and it is quite likely that there are specimens, perhaps many of them, that have not been certified.
2. Auction sales: The thousands of auction sales conducted in the United States since the 1850s provide information concerning the availability of Mint State coins. There are several tempering factors (here we go again!).
First, auction reports of non-certified coins-and this includes all auctions before 1986—are apt to be unreliable so far as grading is concerned. As a professional dealer, time and time again I have seen coins graded as Mint State by well-known firms of thy past (B. Max Mehl being an outstanding example), which by today's strict standards and interpretations might not even make MS-60, let alone MS-63 or MS-65!