Q. David Bowers
Auction reports are useful in a relative sense, but in an absolute sense they are not. Auctions measure only those coins which are sold through the auction route. Taking as examples, Mint State hoard coins of 1860-O, of which several thousand exist, for every one or two sold at auction, probably a dozen or more change hands privately through fixed price lists, coin shops, conventions, sales to investors, etc.
Auction reports are even worse when it comes to Proof Liberty Seated dollars dated prior to 1858 (because of grading; see below).
3. Fixed price lists: These, too, are not reliable.
First of all, there is the grading problem. Was a coin called "Gem Uncirculated" by Dealer X in 1946 really what we would even call minimum Mint State, or MS-60, today? Sometimes yes and sometimes no. Again, no' consistency.
Second, if a price list, say one of my own company, contained this listing- 1860-O MS-60 PCGS"-in five consecutive issues, does this mean that we only had one in stock and, because it did not sell, we offered it over and over again? Or, does it mean that we sold five such coins from List No.1, three examples from List No.2, none from List No. 3, eight from List No.4, and six from List No. 5, and still have 11 pieces in stock, for a total of 33 different coins during this time period? One coin or 33 coins-quite a difference when it comes to statistical analysis!
4. Historical/numismatic data: Mint reports, production figures, quantities melted etc., as addressed at length above, figure into the calculations. So do reference book prices (in many instances, but not always, rarer coins mean higher prices), studies published in The Coin Dealer Newsletter (and other publications by the same issuer), The Rosen Numismatic Advisory, The Forecaster, David Hall's Inside View, and other newsletters. When based upon experience and study, rather than as part of a sales effort in such reports can be exceedingly valuable.
5. Experience. Cervantes called experience "the universal mother of sciences." Having been in the front line as a coin dealer since the 1950s, I have seen many collections come and go, have attended innumerable coin shows, have endeavored to track down elusive silver dollars for clients want lists, have done many appraisals, etc. While doing these; things I have been numismatically observant. If I were to rate any single factor as being most important, it would be experience. Of course, experience is not infallible. If another person, were to write this book, undoubtedly he or she would draw upon different experiences and would have seen-different things.
Life experiences continue, and perhaps next year I will learn of a new hoard, or will see a long-hidden old-me collection not hitherto suspected to exist, or other information will come to hand. When these things happen, and as others do research and make discoveries, the numbers used in my estimates are apt to change.
One of the best expositions I have encountered concerning the rarity of Liberty Seated dollars in Mint State was written by, Bruce Amspacher for the Monthly Summary of The Coin Dealer Newsletter, July-August 1982. He stated that one dealer had seen only three gem coins; of any, Liberty Seated dates in the past several years, another leading dealer had not been offered a gem of any date in the past year, and: "The evidence is building that a lot of people haven't seen any." To reiterate, Mr. Amspacher was discussing all Liberty Seated dollars from 1840 to 1873. Today, we think of such dates as 1844 and 1848 being rare, but in actuality, quite a few date are major rarities in high levels of Mint State.
Rarity in MS-60 to 62, Grades
Below I give estimates of the numbers of specimens known of Liberty Seated dollars in grades from MS-60 through 62.
(Commonest to rarest)
1860-O Approximate population MS-60 to 62: 5,250 to 5, 750 (This is the most plentiful Liberty Seated dollar in this grade range.)
1859-O: 2,250 to 2,750
1871: 100 to 250+ .
1872: 75-125+
1853: 50 to 100 (tied with 1873 and 1870)
1873: 50 to 100 (tied with 1853 and 1870)
1870: 50 to 100 (tied with 1853 and 1873)
1860: 40 to 75 1842: 40 to 60
1849: 30 to 60 (tied with 1857)
1857: 30 to 60 (tied with 1849)
1846: 25 to 50
1862: 25 to 40
1843: 20 to 40 (tied with 1847, 1859, 1863, 1865, 1866, 1867)
1847: 20 to 40 (tied with 1843, 1859, 1863, 1865, 1866, 1867)
1859: 20 to 40 (tied with 1843, 1847, 1863, 1865, 1866, 1867)
1863: 20 to 40 (tied with 1843, 1847, 1859, 1865, 1866, 1867)
1865: 20 to 40 (tied with 1843, 1847, 1859, 1863, 1866, 1867)
1866: 20 to 40 (tied with 1843, 1847, 1859, 1863, 1865, 1867)
1867: 20 to 40 (tied with 1843, 1847, 1859, 1863, 1865, 1866)
1840: 15 to 25 (tied with 1841, 1844, 1848, 1861, 1869)
1841: 15 to 25 (tied with 1840, 1844, 1848, 1861, 1869)
1844: 15 to 25 (tied with 1840, 1841, 1848, 1861, 1869)
1848: 15 to 25 (tied with 1840, 1841, 1844, 1861, 1869)
1861: 15 to 25 (tied with 1840, 1841, 1844, 1848, 1869)
1869: 15 to 25 (tied with 1840, 1841, 1844, 1848, 1861)
1868: 12 to 20
1846-O: 10 to 20 (tied with 1850, 1870-CC)
1850: 10 to 20 (tied with 1846-0, 1870-CC)
1870-CC: 10 to 20 (tied with 1846-0, 1850)
1854: 8 to 12 (tied with 1855, 1856, 1864)
1855: 8 to 12 (tied with 1854, 1856, 1864)
1856: 8 to 12 (tied with 1854, 1855, 1864)
1864: 8 to 12 (tied with 1854, 1855, 1856)
1850-O: 6 to 10
1859-S: 5 to 10 (tied with 1851, 1852, 1872-CC)
1851: S to 10 (tied with 1852, 1859-S, 1872-CC)
1852: S to 10 (tied with 1851, 1859-S, 1872-CC)
1872-CC: 5 to 10 (tied with 1851, 1852)
1845: 2 to 4
1872-S: 1 to 4
1871-CC: 1 or 2 (tied with 1873-CC)
1873-CC: 1 or 2 (tied with 1871-CC)
1870-S: 0 or 1 (the rarest Liberty Seated dollar at this grade level)