Q. David Bowers
1. Grading services: The census or population in-formation reports issued by PCGS, NGC, and ANACS are of value. However, many lower-value (i.e., in many instances, lower grade) coins are not submitted for certification. In general, such reports are best used for higher-value coins in Mint State or Proof grades, but there are many exceptions.
2. Auctions: In general, auctions are the route by which collections, some major, many moderate, and some minor, reach the market. Hoards, groups, etc., of lower value coins are often sold by coin shops, vest pocket dealers, etc., and do not appear in auction catalogues.
It is probably the case that for every single 1842 Liberty Seated dollar in VF-20 grade sold at auction, dozens change hands by private sale through coin shops, conventions, price lists, coin club displays, etc. On the other hand, coins that are apt to be worth hundreds of dollars or more each, such as some of the dates in the early 1860s and the Carson City coins of the 1870s, often appear in auctions. Still, probably most of these latter coins are sold privately by dealers and collectors.
In the case of landmark rarities such as the 1851, 1852, and 1870-S, as many or more of these appear in auctions than change hands by private treaty. Most of what we know about the availability of the rare 1870-S dollar (the rarest regular issue Liberty Seated dollar; only nine are confirmed to exist, with a 10th reported) comes from auction catalogues. Unfortunately, documentation concerning private sales is largely non-existent.
In summary, for common issues auction catalogues do not have much value for analysis. For scarce and rare issues information in auction catalogues is useful up to a point.
3. Fixed price lists: These are a better indicator of the availability of worn coins, except, as I mentioned under the analysis of the rarity of Mint State coins, the reader does not know whether a single listing repeated over a continuous series of catalogues represents a single coin or whether it stands for many sales of the same date and grade.
However, some common sense can be of help. Consider the following excerpt of Liberty Seated dollars of the 1840 year listed in hypothetical catalogues of Dealer A and Dealer B issued during a particular year (the prices are not relevant to actual market values and are for illustration only):
Dealer A:
January catalogue:
1840: VF-20 $300, VF-30 $450, EF-40 $700
February catalogue:
1840: VF-20 $300, VF-30 $450, EF-40 $700
March catalogue:
1840: VF-20 $300, VF-30 $450, EF-40 $700
April catalogue:
1840: VF-20 $300, VF-30 $450, EF-40 $700
May catalogue:
1840: VF-20 $300, VF-30 $450, EF-40 $700
Commentary: Dealer A's catalogues tell nothing. He may have not sold anything during the period under study, or he may have sold from one to a couple dozen of each grade listing. Apparently, he has an in-depth stock of Liberty Seated dollars, or he wouldn't use his advertising money to list them in such detail. However, for research purposes we learn little.
Dealer B:
January catalogue:
1840: VF-20 $300, EF-40 $700
February catalogue:
1840: VF-30 $450
March catalogue:
1840: EF-40 $725
April catalogue:
1840: VF-20 $325, VF-30 $460, EF-40 $725
May catalogue:
1840: EF-40 $740
Commentary: Dealer B's catalogues are more useful. Apparently, after his January catalogue appeared he sold one each (at least) of the VF-20 and EF-40 grades. He could have sold two or three of each-we don't know. However, as his stock does not seem to be in depth, probably he had just one or two of each. After his February catalogue appeared he sold a VF-30 coin, etc.
4. Historical/numismatic data: Mint reports, production figures, quantities melted, newsletter reports (to the extent that newsletters cover circulated coins, which isn't often), etc., as addressed in length above, figure into the calculations, as do reference book prices (in many instances, but not always, higher prices mean rarer coins).
Several interesting studies concerning the rarity of circulated Liberty Seated dollars have been published in The Gobrecht Journal, among them being Ron Severa's "Liberty Seated Dollars-Scarcity/ Availability," March 1977; John Kroon's "Availability of Liberty Seated Dollars by Grade," March 1984, and Dr. Harry E. Salyards' single-date study On the 1869 dollar in the March 1986 issue. Weimar W. White's 1985 book, The Liberty Seated Dollar 1840-1873 covers all issues. The Bibliography lists others.
Opinions of collectors and dealers are apt to vary, and to vary widely. I cite one representative instance, that of the rarity of the 1845. Liberty Seated dollar in worn grades. In his book, Weimar W. White suggests that "under 250" (to use his .exact words) exist. Dale R. Phelan, another experienced observer of the Liberty Seated scene, states that the number is "more like 1,500 to 2,000+."1 My own estimate, as given in this book, is that 900 to 1,400 exist in: VF-20 to AU-58. I do not give an estimate for lower circulated grades, from Fair-I to Fine-15, but probably several hundred exist at those levels. The point is that knowledgeable people can have different opinions.
5. Experience: As is the case with Mint State coins, my experience as a dealer and observer of the numismatic scene is perhaps my most valuable tool in making rarity estimates. This is especially true in view of the lack of usefulness of auction data. However, if I suggest that a few thousand coins exist, this does not mean that I have personally seen or heard of thousands. These are conjectures based upon extrapolation of other data and, hopefully, a somewhat educated guess as to the total or universal population of Liberty Seated dollars in numismatic hands.