Q. David Bowers
Mint State Coins: The Locker Study
In an article, "An Analysis of Mint-State Carson City Coins," published in The Numismatist, September 1992, David]. Locker gave the total number of Uncirculated pieces (in all levels of Mint State combined) certified by NGC and PCGS from the inception of the services to March 1992. In the trade dollar series the author listed the following:
1873-CC: Mintage 124,500; coins certified in Mint State: 14.
1874-CC: Mintage 1,373,200; coins certified in Mint State: 39.
1875-CC: Mintage 1,573,700; coins certified in Mint State: 88.
1876-CC: Mintage 509,000; coins certified in Mint State: 7.
1877-CC: Mintage 534,000; coins certified in Mint State: 24.
1878-CC: Mintage 97,000; coins certified in Mint State: 22.
From the Locker figures I have calculated the percentage of surviving Mint State coins in relationship to the original mintages:
1873-CC: lout of every 8,893 coins survives in Mint State; 0.01124% of the original mintage.
1874-CC: lout of every 35,210 coins survives in Mint State; 0.00284% of the original mintage.
1875-CC: lout of every 17,883 coins survives in Mint State; 0.00559% of the original mintage.
1876-CC: lout of every 72,714 coins survives in Mint State; 0.00138% of the original mintage.
1877-CC: lout of every 22,250 coins survives in Mint State; 0.00449% of the original mintage.
1878-CC: lout of every 4,409 coins survives in Mint State; 0.02268% of the original mintage.
It will be seen from the figures given above that original mintage bears no specific relationship to the number of trade dollars surviving in Mint State today. Such numbers pose the question as to why one mintage survived in a higher ratio than another. If there is a statistically significant difference, as, indeed, there is among various figures given above, then there must be explanations. While the following commentary is not intended to be definitive, here are some ideas that might spur further thinking for anyone wishing to expand this study (which can be done by using NGC and PCGS reports, as noted) to cover other trade dollar varieties (or, for that matter, silver dollar varieties). I personally enjoy exploring the historical, commercial, and numismatic questions posed. Some ideas follow:
1873-CC: Among Carson City coins, the survival ratio of Mint State coins of this date was very high-second only to 1878-CC, in fact. I theorize that of the 1873-CC coins not exported, an unusually high number were kept as mementos. Witness the great interest in trade dollars in and around Carson City, as reflected in contemporary newspaper accounts.
1874-CC: Not many were saved in proportion to the mintage. Most of the coinage went to the Orient and was later melted there.
1875-CC: I suspect that porportionally more of these were circulated domestically, as such coins were legal tender at the time. Probably, the chances of Mint State coins being saved domestically were higher than in the Orient. This is a "weak" theory, in my opinion, but, offhand, it is the first that comes to mind. Or, perhaps a cache of unchopmarked Mint State coins survived, in the manner of the small hoard once distributed by World-Wide Coin Investments, Inc. (mentioned earlier in the text).
1876-CC: Same explanation as 1874-CC. In terms of survival in proportion to the original mintage, this is the rarest Mint State trade dollar. Of course, relative rarity is not as important as absolute rarity to collectors.
1877-CC: No explanation comes to mind. These were not legal tender in 1877. Most went to the Orient. Again (as in 1875-CC), perhaps a cache of unchopmarked Mint State coins survived, in the manner of the small hoard once distributed by World-Wide Coin Investments, Inc. (mentioned earlier in the text).
1878-CC: In my opinion, most of this mintage remained stateside. It was also recognized in the year of mintage that this would be the last business strike trade dollar date. Presumably, more were saved for two reasons: (I) Primarily domestic, rather than export, circulation; (2) Mementos of the last coinage.
You can add your own theories to the preceding, and they may be even better than mine.
Rarity of Proof Coins
The rarity of Proof trade dollars forms a separate subject for study. The estimates of the number of pieces known are my own and are taken from experience, auction records, consultation with others, and grading service population reports. In evaluating grading service reports I assumed that the figures listed for Proof-64 and Proof-65 had a higher rate of resubmissions (in hope of still higher grades) than did coins graded from Proof-60 to Proof-63. Of course, the grading services have seen only a percentage of the known coins, and their figures must be extrapolated.
As this study is subjective, future editions of this text will contain revisions for any listings that require them.