Q. David Bowers
The Willem Study
In The U.S. Trade Dollar John M. Willem published the results of a survey he took of non-Proof (business strike) trade dollars advertised in The Numismatic Scrapbook Magazine from 1935 onward. He listed them in the following order:
(Ranked commonest to rarest) 1877-S (most common)
1878-S
1875-S and 1877 (tied)
1876-S
1875-CC
1876
1873-S,
1874-CC,
1877-CC (tied)
1873, 1873-CC, 1874, 1874-S, 1876-CC (tied)
1878-CC (rarest branch mint issue)
1875 (rarest of all business strikes; rarest Philadelphia Mint issue)
The pioneering study by Willem was to set the tone for a number of other evaluations of rarity within the trade dollar series. As will be seen from the text below, later conclusions generally agree in a broad sense with the Willem findings, except that few would state today that the 1875 Philadelphia Mint trade dollar is the rarest business strike issue. As more studies are done over the years, the results will become increasingly refined.
One problem of using retail coin listings in The Numismatic Scrapbook Magazine, or any other retail listings for that matter, is that an unsold coin will be relisted, often many times. Suppose, for example, that during a given three-year period a hypothetical dealer has just two EF-40 trade dollars of these particular varieties: an 1875 and an 18'78"CC. Suppose that the 1875 is underpriced and sells to a telephone call the day the listing appears in print. Also suppose that the 1878-CC is overpriced and does not sell for three years (these things happen). A perusal of this dealer's monthly catalogues may show one 1875, which is correct, but "36" 1878-CC trade dollars. For this reason, such listings-and auction appearances, too=must be tempered with numismatic judgment and experience.
The Epps Study
James Vernon Epps' article, "Our Most Misunderstood Coin-The U.S. Trade Dollar," in The Gobrecht Journal; March 1978, discussed technical varieties of the trade dollar and gave the author's opinion of the availability of various issues, not including Proofs. The study is primarily applicable to circulated grades, for Mint State coins have a somewhat different order of rarity (as became evident years later, after 1986, when population reports of coins graded by PCGS, NGC, and ANACS became available).
James Vernon Epps evaluated the rarity of trade dollars as follows, taking care to differentiate between Type I and Type II reverses (but making no note of the obverse types):
(Ranked commonest to rarest)
1877-S. The most common issue.
1878-S
1875-S Type I reverse
1876-S Type II reverse
1877
1873-S
1875-CC Type I reverse
1874-S
1874-CC
1873-CC
1874
1876 Type II reverse
1876-CC Type II reverse
1875-S Type II reverse
1876-S Type I reverse
1876-CC Type I reverse
1873
1876 Type I reverse
1877-CC
1875 Type I reverse
1878-CC
1875 Type II reverse
1875-S/CC Type I. reverse.
1875-CC Type II reverse. The rarest business strike trade dollar issue.
Rarity of VF to AU Coins
Taking the various issues of business strike trade dollars, and not including differentiation into the Type I and Type II categories, I believe the following to be an approximation of the rarity today in the grade range from VF-20 to AU-58. Note that the order varies in many instances from the 1978 Epps study just quoted:
(Ranked commonest to rarest)
1877-S: Estimated population: 50,000+.
1878-S: 30,000+.
1875-S: 25,000+.
1876-S: 25,000+.
1877: 20,000+
1875-CC: 4,000-8,000.
1873-S: 3,000-6,000+.
1874-S: 2,500-5,000.
1874-CC: 2,500-5,000.
1874: 2,500-4,500+.
1876: 2,000-4,000.
1876-CC: 1,500-2,500.
1873: 1,250-2,000.
1873-CC: 1,000-2,000.
1875: 750-1,500.
1877-CC: 400-800.
1875-S/CC: 200-400.
1878-CC: 125-250. Rarest business strike trade dollar.