Q. David Bowers
The Author's Rarity Ratings
For Peace dollars, as with Morgan dollars, there is one area for guesswork: How many coins were melted of each issue?
The 1918 Pittman Act, which saw the destruction of over 270 million earlier-dated silver dollars (mostly Morgan dollars), occurred before the Peace dollar was a gleam in Anthony de Francisci's eye, so at least I did not have this great question mark to deal with. However, Peace dollars were melted on numerous other occasions, and the government kept no record of the dates and mintmarks involved.
From 1921 through 1935, Peace dollar mintage amounted to 190,577,279 coins. Of that number, many were melted. We know that during the 1920s and 1930s when Peace dollars were being minted, the government melted from several hundred to several thousand silver dollars each year, but we do not know how many were Peace dollars and how many were of the Morgan design. Presumably, those melted because they were very worn were of the earlier type, while damaged dollars could have been of either type.
Under the provisions of the Silver Act of December 18, 1942, approximately 50 million silver dollars were melted, some of them to provide electrical conductors for use in the Manhattan Project, which undertook the development of the atomic bomb. Again, no account was kept of the types, dates, or mintmarks melted. It could have been that millions of Peace dollars of a single common variety were melted, and/or a large percentage of one of the lower mintage issues went to the melting pot. In addition, during the late 1930s, the 1940s, 1950s, and early 1960s, many millions of other unsorted dollars were converted back into silver bullion by the government.
As if that were not enough, in the late 1960s, the price of silver bullion began to rise, and in 1979-1980 the price of an ounce of silver brushed the $50 mark, if only briefly. The following prices represent the silver value of an unworn Peace dollar (which contains 0.77344 oz. of fine silver) at various market levels:
Silver = $5 per ounce; silver dollar worth: $3.87 Silver = $10 per ounce; silver dollar worth: $7.73 Silver = $20 per ounce; silver dollar worth: $15.46 Silver = $30 per ounce; silver dollar worth: $23.19 Silver = $40 per ounce; silver dollar worth: $30.92 Silver = $50 per ounce; silver dollar worth: $38.65
As silver crossed the $10 per ounce mark, then $20, and then went higher in 1979, the vast majority of Peace dollars in existence, including most Mint State specimens of commoner dates, and Virtually all worn pieces, became worth more as bullion than as numismatic articles. Untold tens of millions were melted. Once again, no account was kept of the dates and mintmarks involved. I know that many enlightened bullion dealers (nearly all of whom had at least a rudimentary knowledge of which dates were rare) plucked out such issues as 1928 and 1934-S, but I also know that most others, including attractive high-grade examples of 1921 and some of the mintmarks, were destroyed.
Guide Book and other price listings of that era reflect the bullion value, not a significant increase in numismatic demand. Thus, if a silver dollar was worth $30 if melted down, but had a numismatic value of $35 if someone went through the trouble of retailing it, the choice was easy: to the cauldron.
My guess is that of the 190,577,279 Peace dollars minted from 1921 to 1935, somewhere in the range of 150 to 160 million no longer exist. If true, this would give a total population of Peace dollars today in the 30 to 40 million range.
Other Details
In arriving at my estimates I used the five basic source areas described a few paragraphs earlier.
I believe that only a tiny percentage of known Peace dollars have been certified. Thus, it may come as a surprise for some readers who know, for example, that only 500 MS-65 coins of a particular variety have been certified by NGC and PCGS, to see me estimate the population of MS-65 coins at, say 2,000. As Ruth Bauer related in her earlier recollection of selling mint-sealed bags of dollars in the early 1960s, very few people who bought them then have put them back on the market.
Occasionally, hoards surface to everyone's surprise. A group of 50 bags (50,000 coins) of 1922-D Peace dollars from a non-numismatic source began to be distributed by Dwight Manley in the early 1990s. In June 1992, two and one-half bags (2,500 coins) of sparkling 1927-D dollars, considered to be one of the rarer varieties in the series at this level, surfaced in a Sotheby's auction. Doubtless, future years will hold more surprises for us all.
It is fashionable in political polls and in other forms of statistical analysis to state a margin of error. If finite samples were being used, such as a survey of 1,000 people who collect Peace dollars, more definite conclusions could be drawn than I can do from the Peace dollar data on hand. While I suggest that perhaps 40 million Peace dollars survive, perhaps if I were omniscient I would know the number is really precisely 18,583,421, or some higher number-how about 87,943,882?
Similarly, if suggest that in grades from VF-20 to AU-58, the population of 1927-S is estimated at 65,000 to 120,000, and that of 1935-S from 60,000 to 100,000, the true figures are unknown. However, taking everything into consideration, an entry at the top of the chart below should be more common than one a third of the way down, and one in the middle should be more common than one toward the end, etc. The point of this is not to take any of these figures as absolute.
My estimates of rarity are just that: estimates. I will be pleased to receive a critique from any reader with specific suggestions (and identification of sources) for possible revisions in a future issue.
Rarity in VF-20 to AU-58 Grades
Below, various issues in the Peace dollar series are listed in ascending order of rarity, from the commonest to the rarest. The first figure of the estimate range is used in determining the order. In this and the following charts, if there is a tie, and the second figure in the range is different, the second figure determines the order. Otherwise, a tie is indicated.
By comparing this and the other charts, it will be seen that the rarity of a given variety changes from one grade level to another.
The high-mintage 1922, 1923, 1924, and 1925 rank as the commonest, with 1923 perhaps being the very most common. At the other end of the scale is the rarest Peace dollar in worn grades, the low-mintage 1928.
1922 Approximate population VF-20 to AU-58: 10,000,000 to 15,000,000. (This is the commonest Peace dollar in these grade ranges.)
1923: 5,000,000 to 8,000,000.
1924: 2,500,000 to 4,500,000.
1922-D: 2,000,000 to 4,000,000.
1925: 1,750,000 to 3,500,000.
1922-S: 1,500,000 to 2,500,000. (tied with 1923-S)
1923-S: 1,500,000 to 2,500,000. (tied with 1922-S)
1923-D: 500,000 to 1,000,000.
1926-S: 300,000 to 600,000.
1925-S: 160,000 to 275,000.
1926: 150,000 to 300,000.
1926-D: 150,000 to 250,000.
1928-S: 90,000 to 150,000. (tied with 1934-D)
1934-D: 90,000 to 150,000. (tied with 1928-S)
1935: 75,000 to 125,000.
1927-S: 65,000 to 120,000.
1935-S: 60,000 to 100,000.
1921: 50,000 to 90,000.
1924-S: 40,000 to 70,000.
1927-D: 35,000 to 65,000.
1927: 30,000 to 60,000.
1934-S: 30,000 to 40,000.
1934: 20,000 to 40,000.
1928: 12,500 to 25,000. (This is the rarest Peace dollar in these grade ranges.)