Q. David Bowers
Peace Dollar Rarity Estimates
Past Studies
In compiling rarity ratings for the Peace dollars in this book, I have used several sources. The philosophy is much the same as given earlier for Morgan silver dollars, for both the Morgan and Peace dollar series have much in common in such areas as the existence of hoards in the past, and in market structure.
For Peace dollars my rarity ratings differ somewhat from those given by others, including John Highfill (who based his Mint State ratings solely on NGC and PCGS population reports) and Les and Sue Fox (in Silver Dollar Fortune Telling, 1987 edition). First, a commentary on these two excellent studies and other efforts:
The George Haylings Ratings
Making estimates on the number of surviving silver dollars has been done by many, by using a mathematical formula with little or no consideration for such factors as specific melting of certain dates, distribution policies, etc. I have little regard for such "research," but many of the studies in this genre have been published in investment letters and even in well-known numismatic periodicals, and have met a receptive audience.
A notorious example is furnished by George Haylings' article, "Investing in Silver Dollars," in COINage magazine, June 1970. He estimated that 337,760,944 Morgan silver dollars remained in existence at that time, and 171,544,361 Peace dollars. Of each figure, 10% were said to have survived in Uncirculated grade. He also guessed that there were 120,000 collectors who specialized in dollars and 280,000 collectors who added dollars to other coins in their collections. Further, there were l.6 million "estimated collectors who are somewhat inactive but might turn to dollars some day." Still further, he stated that enough Morgan silver dollars survived of the various dates that itwas possible to make up 5,122 Uncirculated sets (not including an 1895 Proof) and that enough Peace dollars survived to make up 2,855 sets.
John Kamin in The Forecaster, April 5, 1972, suggested that the 1923 Peace dollar was the most plentiful of all dollar dates, followed in order by the 1922 Peace dollar, the 1921 Morgan dollar, and then Morgan dollars of 1884-O, 1883-O, 1885-O, 1887, and 1881-S. Around the same time, George Haylings noted in a newsletter, the Coin Investing Communique, that the most common of all dollars was the 1885-O, followed in order by 1884-O, 1904-O, and 1923 Peace, 1882-S, 1883-O, 1882-O, and 1898-O.
The findings of these two writers were analyzed by Richard T. Deters in COINage Magazine, May 1973. He noted:
Need I call your attention to the discrepancy that Kamin's list does not contain four coins on Hayling's list. Or that their orders are more or less plentiful or surprisingly different? What, then, are the actual facts; not merely estimates and poll totals?
My own feeling is that much of Hayling's research, if it could be called that, was misdirected, and that numismatic reality was not taken into consideration in many of his writings. On the other hand, John Kamin had (and has) an excellent working knowledge of numismatics, investment psychology, and other market factors, is widely read, and has produced commentaries that can stand up to careful scrutiny.
Coin buyers, particularly investors, love figures, and in its time, Haylings' information was gobbled up. Never mind that most of what he wrote was based on mathematical calculations rather than numismatic knowledge. I will not take the space here to dissect this or other analyses, except to say that, according to Haylings, if 10% of the mintage survives from eachPeace dollar variety, then according to him, all one has to do to determine the number of pieces available is to use his formula; e.g., the mintage of the 1921 is 1,006,473, thus 100,647 Uncirculated pieces exist; the mintage of 1926 is 1,939,000, thus 193,900 Uncirculated pieces exist; the mintage of 1934-S is 1,011,000, thus 101,100 exist, etc.
However, no writer or researcher, including me, has all of the facts or creates all of the good theories. Unquestionably, as time goes on, the field will attract scholars who will employ increasingly sophisticated research techniques, and the order of rarity ratings will be modified.
NGC and PCGS Population Ratings
Below are given data compiled from the population reports published by the Numismatic Guaranty Corporation of America and the Professional Coin Grading Service in September 1992.
In brief, these ratings are primarily useful to the certification-oriented reader, as they consider only the coins that have been submitted for certification to the two leading grading services, NGC and PCGS. Inmy opinion, these figures are useful in a relative sense for expensive coins, as these are the ones the owners considered worth certifying (certification typically costs in the $20 range per coin). High-grade 1934-S dollars are of great value, for example, and it seems logical that many of those in dealers' hands have been certified by NGC or PCGS. If a dealer is fortunate to buy a roll of average quality 1934-S dollars, chances are good he will send it to one of the leading grading services. Even if many of the coins come back certified as MS-60, MS-61, or some other lower grade, certification would probably be worth it.
On the other hand, someone buying a roll of average quality common 1923 Peace dollars is not likely to pay $20 per coin to have them certified, for once certified, the total retail value of an MS-60, MS-61, or other low-grade 1923 Peace dollar is substantially less than the certification fee alone.
For this reason, if population reports are used, less expensive (i.e., usually commoner, either as a variety or condition level) coins are usually much rarer than the population reports indicate. For example, the data show that 2,234 1922 Peace dollars have been certified in the grades from MS-60 to 62, but an estimated two to four million coins exist. For very expensive coins, the population reports are a more accurate guide, as noted.
As a dealer, I have found that quite a few clients are concerned only with population reports, and for this category of client, the population report numbers are more meaningful than mine, for while they might not give an estimate of the total number of pieces in the numismatic universe, they do give valuable data on NGC and PCGS certifications.