Q. David Bowers
In general, auction data are skewed to make common coins appear rarer than they really are, and rare coins appear more plentiful. As an example, a survey of leading auction sales of Morgan dollar collections reveals that just about every cabinet to be sold contained one (not 100 or 1,000) 1881-S dollar and just one Proof 1895. The former coin exists by the millions, and of the latter probably only 500 or 600 exist. If I were to compile listings of the contents of every significant Morgan dollar collection sold at auction during the last century, 1881-S would appear more times than 1895, but would not appear to be thousands of times more common, as it really is.
Auction data are useful, but only as a part of a broad-based market research program.
In particular, in the Liberty Seated series estimates of the number of 1859-O and 1860-O dollars released in the late 1950s and early 1960s, and the number of these two varieties known today, drew varying opinions among previous writers and students of the series who communicated with me during the research stages of this book. Weimar W. White believes that in total just 1,000 of these were released, divided into about 300 1859-O and 700 1860-O, (Letter to the author, April 2, 1992) while others (cited in the text) place the numbers at 3,000 and 6,000 respectively.
In my opinion, those who wish to base their estimates solely or primarily upon the number of coins certified since 1986 (when the encapsulation of coins began with PCGS) and auction appearances should do so, and those who wish to use a broader base should do this. I believe that only a fraction of the coins in existence have been certified and/or have appeared in recent auctions. This is particularly true of lesser value coins and coins in grades below about MS-63. Of the rarities and higher value coins that have appeared in auctions during the past several years, many have been certified. Weimar White pointed out that in 1991, 39% of the Mint State Liberty Seated dollars auctioned and 39.8% of the Proofs were certified, (Letter to the author, May 17, 1992) Probably, this percentage will increase as years go on.
Further, surveys conducted by the Liberty Seated Collectors Club may give interesting relative figures for rarity, but not absolute numbers. Although my company, Bowers and Merena Galleries, Inc., has encouraged its clients to join the L.S.C.C. and other organizations, in practice relatively few do. I estimate that of a given 100 clients who buy Liberty Seated dollars from us, fewer than 10 belong to the L.S.C.C. Similarly, we have sold numismatic reference books to tens of thousands of buyers over the years, of whom probably no more than a few hundred have seen fit to join the Numismatic Bibliomania Society, an active group dedicated to the enjoyment of coin periodicals, books, and ephemera.
Opinions of collectors and dealers are apt to vary on the subject of rarity, and to vary widely. I cite one representative instance, that of the rarity of the 1845 Liberty Seated dollar in worn grades. In his 1985 book, The Liberty Seated Dollar 1840-1873, Weimar W. White suggests that "under 250" (to use his exact words) 1845 silver dollars exist. Dale R. Phelan, another experienced observer of the Liberty Seated scene, states that the number is "more like 1,500 to 2,000+." (Letter to the author, April 19, 1992) My own estimate, as given in this book, is that 900 to 1,400 exist in VF-20 to AU-58. I do not give an estimate for lower circulated grades, from Fair-1 to Fine-15, but probably several hundred exist at those levels. The point is that knowledgeable, well-intentioned people can have widely differing opinions.
The present book provides a target to shoot at, and rarity estimates, if found to be incorrect, can be changed in future editions.
How rare is it? With "How much is it worth?" this is one of the two most asked questions in numismatics.
Answers differ. Such adjectives and phrases as "common," "scarce," "rare," and "very rare" are apt to vary in meaning from one user to another. More-over, what is "rare" in one series may be "common" in another.
For example, among Morgan silver dollars, there are thousands of Mint State 1879-CCs known. The General Services Administration sales of the 1970s distributed 4,000 coins from U.S. Treasury holdings, and, in addition, thousands of others exist, perhaps about 10,000 totally. However, any cataloguer of a collection of Morgan dollars would probably call a Mint State 1879-CC a rare coin. Few would dispute this.
On the other hand, among Hard Times tokens of the 1832-1844 era there is a variety catalogued as Low-54 (from Lyman H. Low's 1900 guide to the series), bearing on the obverse a kneeling slave, and the inscription AM I NOT A WOMAN & A SISTER. Perhaps 500 to 1,000 of these are known. In absolute terms, Low-54 is at least 10 times more elusive than a Mint State 1879-CC dollar. Even so, within the context of the Hard Times token series, the Low- 54 is common or, at best, scarce. It certainly is not rare or very rare.