Q. David Bowers
Put simply, rarity ratings are educated guesses as to how many specimens of a given coin exist in a given grade category. I base my estimates on a wide variety of sources, including auction appearances, grading service population reports, dealers' price lists, opinions of consultants to this book, the number of coins I have personally seen, etc.
Rarity ratings change over a period of time as more coins are examined and more specimens come to light. In 1974 a blundered date 1872 business strike Liberty Seated dollar was first described in numismatic literature. No one had ever heard of it before, although regular 1872 Liberty Seated dollars were common. As time went on, more coins were examined. Now, in the early 1990s, the 1872 blundered date dollar is common, and it is realized that probably about a third of all known 1872 coins have this feature!
Similarly, in 1961 Coin World asked me to verify a new discovery: a 1938-D Buffalo nickel with the D mintmark over an S. No one had ever heard of this variety until one turned up in the hands of a New York numismatist. The 1938-D/S was publicized and was considered to be a major rarity. More and more were found, and it became only "scarce." Today, thousands have been identified, and the variety is common.
Of course, in numismatics some varieties have remained rare. So far as I know, no new specimens of the 1884 and 1885 trade dollar have been found since 10 of the 1884 and five of the 1885 came to the attention of collectors in 1907-1908.
Rarity cannot be absolute, except in the case of coins in which only a few were struck, and that number is known, and each specimen can be specifically identified today. Few if any dollars fit into that category. Instead, we are confronted with a variety of guesses, estimates, proclamations, theories, etc.
A question arises as to whether "stories" should be printed. For example, Walter Breen's Complete Encyclopedia of U.S. and Colonial Coins states that a bag of 1,000 Mint State 1872 Liberty Seated dollars came to light in the early 1960s. However, this cannot be verified today, even by Walter H. Breen, who recalled that he heard of it years ago from Harry Forman (who, in turn, told me recently that he knew of only a few dozen single Mint State coins, not a bag). I mention the bag in this book, but also mention that it is unverified, and tell the story why. I consider this better than completely overlooking the 1,000 coins described in Walter H. Breen's Encyclopedia, for if I overlooked them, then certainly some later writer would say: "Bowers' book states that a couple hundred Mint State 1872 dollars exist, to which must be added the 1,000 mentioned by Walter H. Breen, for a total population of 1,200," or something in this vein.
Similarly, Stephen K. Nagy told me that "hundreds" of 1801-2-3 Proof novodel dollars (called "restrikes" during this lifetime) were minted. If anyone should know, he should-as he and his partner, Capt. John W. Haseltine, handled many "fancy pieces" secretly produced at the Mint years earlier. However, in the absence of the appearance of hundreds of such 1801-2-3 Proof novodels on the market over the last century, this commentary is not included in the estimates I give of the population of these issues today.
Weimar W. White, a contributor to this book, commented as follows:' "[Calculations are preferable to] hearsay evidence. It is a terrible injustice to place a stigma on a coin such as the 1872 dollar by suggesting (as some do) that 1,000 were released, and not have concrete evidence that such a bag ever existed. This kind of stigma affects collectors' attitudes toward the coin, and it may not deserve it."
In my own experience I can cite an instance in the late 1950s when a well-known dealer told me that he had personally seen a holding of over one million 1934-S Peace dollars in storage at the San Francisco Mint. I made a note of this at the time and, since, have mentioned it in several articles. In the course of research for the present book, re-interviewed the same dealer, and he had no recollection of having made such a comment, and stated forthrightly that he had never seen such a hoard! Apparently, in the late 1950s, it made a "good story."
While a number of "good stories" -many of them doubtless true-are given in the text, the population estimates are not based upon unsubstantiated stories or rumors, but are derived from what I consider to be facts. Thus, my estimate of the surviving number of Mint State 1872 dollars does not include the spectral bag of 1,000 coins just mentioned. Nor, as noted, do my estimates of the number of 1801-2-3 Proof novodel dollars known include the phantom "hundreds" mentioned by Stephen K. Nagy. Still, some of these stories may come true someday. Over a long period of years I have witnessed first-hand a number of unbelievable hoards, and, in fact, have sold some of them. I recall handling a group of four gem 1876-CC twenty-cent pieces from a Baltimore bank vault from a group of eight found there; hundreds of proof like 1879, 1880, and 1881 gold dollars from a similar source; and, of course, the hitherto unbelievable release of 1903-O dollars in 1962.