Q. David Bowers
Introduction
While it can be argued that art is art, commemoratives are commemoratives, and historical market prices should make no difference to anyone interested in these coins, the fact is that most numismatists do keep an eye out for price and value. An understanding of the rarity and price history of each commemorative is vital, in my opinion, to any decision to purchase a given coin. If a commemorative is priced at $500 in a given grade today, it mayor may not be a good value. The lessons of history have much to teach us, and, by learning how a coin has performed ever since the time of its issue, an insight can be gained into the solidity of its value today and the possibilities for its market price in the future.
This book makes no investment predictions. From time to time in the past, a few other authors have done this, and price predictions are a dime a dozen in investment newsletters. In many years of reading what others had to say, I have never encountered anyone who has been able to make any successful specific long-term predictions that depended on the author's insight and expertise rather than on the movement of the commemorative market as a whole. As no one can predict the future with accuracy and as I have never been able to find even a single person who has been able to make consistent recommendations that Significantly outperform market movements, the present text contains no predictions. However, without question, predictions do help sell news-letters and books, and it may be an error of judgment not to include them! Now that we have that matter settled, I will turn to the market history of commemoratives.
I give prices for each commemorative variety for five-year intervals beginning with 1895 (in the case of Columbian Exposition issues, for example) and continuing to 1900, 1905, etc., to 1990. The original issue price of the variety is given (along with a summary of other characteristics), then its price history beginning with the next appropriate interval. Thus a commemorative issued in 1937 has its 1937 issue or distribution price listed, plus a price history for the years 1940,1945, etc., at continuing five-year intervals to date.
Due to market conditions there are several cyclical high and low spots that do not fit conveniently into five-year intervals; these are listed in addition to the five-year benchmarks. Examples include summer 1936, when the commemorative boom of the 1930s was at its-peak; 1986, when grading interpretations changed dramatically; and spring 1990, representing a modem market peak.
Before commencing with market comments, explanations of two aspects are necessary: (1) Grading systems and the methods used, and (2) Determination of prices.
Grading Standards
Grading standards for commemoratives and other coins have changed over the years. Until the late 1970s commemorative coins were graded adjectivally by classifications such as Very Fine, Extremely Fine, About Uncirculated, and Uncirculated, sometimes abbreviated, such as VF, EF, AU, and Unc. (among others).
Buyers and sellers made relatively little distinction among various coins in the Uncirculated category, although particularly nice pieces might occasionally be referred to as Choice or Gem. In the 1977 Official ANA Grading Standards for U.S. Coins book, Dr. William H. Sheldon's numerical grading system, first used for the large cent series in 1949, was adapted for other series as well including commemoratives. Designations such as MS-60 and MS- 65 became prevalent, soon expanded in practice by the marketplace (later by the ANA itself) to include intermediate designations such as MS-63 and MS-67, still later to a complete range in the Uncirculated category, including MS-60, MS-61, and MS-62, continuously through MS-70, with MS-60 representing a minimum Uncirculated coin and MS-70 being an absolutely perfect one.
In January 1986 the ANA Board of Governors stated that coins which had been officially graded by the ANA as MS-65 earlier were now in some instances MS-60 to MS-63. A general tightening of grading interpretations occurred. In the same year the Professional Coin Grading Service was launched, soon followed by the Numismatic Guaranty Corporation of America. For a fee coins were sonically sealed in clear plastic holders ("slabs") imprinted with a numerical grade, which was intended to remain fixed in time and to permit the buying and selling of commemoratives and other coins as a commodity. A great amount of advertising and publicity was directed toward the hoped-for possibility that coins could be traded on a sight unseen basis as stocks are and that Wall Streeters and other eager investors would flock to the coin "industry" in the anticipation of reaping fantastic profits with little work and no knowledge. Some even went so far as to suggest that professional numismatists were no longer necessary and that anyone could buy and sell coins.
A market for Sight-unseen trading developed on electronic networks and remained in force through autumn 1990, by which time a slump occurred in the investment market. All along the way many if not most collectors felt that in addition to a numerical grade such as MS-60 or MS-63, such factors as strike, surface quality, toning, etc. characteristics not mentioned on the labels of certified coins-were important. Investors didn't know any better and were apt to buy anything-including ugly coins-provided that the grading was certified. Countless books, newsletters, advertisements, and other sources of investment advice ceaselessly repeated the siren call that virtually any coin in a slab, if graded MS-65 or better, was a key to windfall profits, never mind if the coins were ugly, common, or both.
Collectors felt differently. Buyers became more discriminating, and by 1991 certified coins were no longer widely traded on a sight-unseen basis, as many wished to ex-amine coins before making decisions. This came as no surprise to me, as I have always maintained that numerical grade is just one of several important aspects affecting a coin's price and value, and that an ugly MS-65 coin may be worth less than an aesthetically pleasing MS-63 coin or even an MS-60 one.